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Monetary Policy Stance and Future Inflation: The Case of Czech Republic

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Horvath

    () (Czech National Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines time-varying policy neutral interest rate in real time for the Czech Republic in 2001:1-2006:09 estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. For this reason, we apply a structural time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. The results indicate that policy neutral rate gradually decreased over sample period to the levels comparable to those of in the euro area. Next, we propose a measure of monetary policy stance based on a difference between the actual interest rate and estimated policy neutral rate and find it a useful predictor of the level as well as change of future inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horvath, 2008. "Monetary Policy Stance and Future Inflation: The Case of Czech Republic," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 80-106.
  • Handle: RePEc:prf:journl:v:2:y:2008:i:1:p:80-106
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    File URL: http://www.vsfs.cz/periodika/acta-2008-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    3. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter & Spreij, Peter & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "An analytic approach to credit risk of large corporate bond and loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1635-1664, September.
    4. John G. Cragg & Russell S. Uhler, 1970. "The Demand for Automobiles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 386-406, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    policy neutral rate; Taylor rule; time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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