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Household Balance Sheets and Economic Crisis

This paper studies the economic impact of the current global economic downturn on the household sector. Household budgets can be negatively affected by declines in nominal wages and increases in unemployment. We empirically test this effect for the small open emerging economy. As a result of a lack of individual data on household finances, micro data are simulated. Our analysis clearly shows that there is a significant additional decline in consumption related to an increase in household default rates and unemployment. We find that potential household insolvencies have important implications for the financial system as well as for the macroeconomy.

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Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2011/20.

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Length: 18pages
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision: Jun 2011
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2011_20
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  8. repec:fth:harver:1533 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Pomerantz, Olga, 2006. "Costs of financial instability, household-sector balance sheets and consumption," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 194-216, June.
  10. Barry, F. & Bradley, J. & Kejak, M. & Vavra, D., 2000. "The Czech Economic Transition: Exploring Options Using a Macrosectoral Model," Papers 00/3, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
  11. Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland : estimations and simulations with micro data," Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland.
  12. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
  13. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
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  15. Gregory N. Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "The Consumption of Stockholders and Non-Stockholders (Reprint 015)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  16. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 266, Bank of England.
  17. Nicolas Albacete & Pirmin Fessler, 2010. "Stress Testing Austrian Households," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 19, pages 72-91.
  18. Petr Kadeřábek & Aleš Slabý & Josef Vodička, 2008. "Stress Testing of Probability of Default of Individuals," Working Papers IES 2008/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2008.
  19. DeVaney, Sharon A. & Lytton, Ruth H., 1995. "Household insolvency: A review of household debt repayment, delinquency, and bankruptcy," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 137-156.
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  23. Meral Karasulu, 2008. "Stress Testing Household Debt in Korea," IMF Working Papers 08/255, International Monetary Fund.
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