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Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada

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  • Alexandre Debs

Abstract

This study tests for a structural break in the volatility of real GDP growth in Canada following the methodology of McConnell and Quiros (1998). A break is found in the first quarter of 1991. Based on disaggregated data, the tests indicate a break in the volatility of the rate of change of investment in residential structures and a break in the volatility of the rate of growth of personal expenditures on goods. Three possible explanations are given for the break in the data: a more service-oriented economy, improved inventory management, and a change in monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Debs, 2001. "Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada," Staff Working Papers 01-9, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:01-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gwyn Bevan, 2001. "International health care reform: a legal, economic and political analysis. Edited by C.M. Flood. Routledge, London (2000). 315 pages. ISBN 0 415 20844 0," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 83-84, January.
    2. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorah Ramlan & Elsadig Musa Ahmed, 2009. "Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and human capital management trend in Malaysia's economic development," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1881-1886.
    2. Jorge M. Andraz & Nelia M. Norte, 2013. "Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 18(2), pages 91-122, September.
    3. William Martin & Robert Rowthorn, 2004. "Will Stability Last?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1324, CESifo.
    4. Kihaule, Arnold Mathias, 2012. "The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania," MPRA Paper 46151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2013.
    5. David Laidler & William B.P. Robson, 2004. "Two Percent Target: The Context, Theory, and Practice of Canadian Monetary Policy since 1991," C.D. Howe Institute Policy Studies, C.D. Howe Institute, number 20041, January.
    6. Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Roberto Cardarelli, 2004. "Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America," IMF Working Papers 2004/138, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, November.
    8. H. Badinger, 2009. "Fiscal rules, discretionary fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability: an empirical assessment for OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 829-847.
    9. David Amirault & Brian O'Reilly, 2001. "The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: How Important Is It?," Staff Working Papers 01-6, Bank of Canada.
    10. Paul Jenkins & Brian O'Reilly, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Economic Well-being of Canadians," The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress, in: Andrew Sharpe, Executive Director & France St-Hilaire, Vice-President , Research & Keith Banting, Di (ed.), The Review of Economic Performance and Social Progress 2001: The Longest Decade: Canada in the 1990s, volume 1, Centre for the Study of Living Standards;The Institutute for Research on Public Policy.
    11. Philip Bodman, 2009. "Output volatility in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(24), pages 3117-3129.
    12. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce, 2010. "Fundamentals versus the leading index-the forecasting of Canada's output growth since 1991: an encompassing approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(10), pages 1227-1243.
    13. Marwan Chacra & Maral Kichian, 2004. "A Forecasting Model for Inventory Investments in Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-39, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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