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The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania


  • Kihaule, Arnold Mathias


This paper examines the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies adopted during the period in which Tanzania experienced economic shocks. The econometric models are used to determine the impact of exogenous and economic policy shocks on gdp growth, public spending and the fiscal balance. The results revealed that policy shocks resulted in structural changes in output growth and public spending instability in Tanzania. Specifically, economic policy shocks led to changes in macroeconomic conditions, which adversely affected the fiscal position after 1986. The results suggest that fiscal adjustment policies should not be undertaken when a number of economic policy changes are envisaged in an economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kihaule, Arnold Mathias, 2012. "The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania," MPRA Paper 46151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46151

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    4. Vito Tanzi, 1989. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on the Level of Taxation and the Fiscal Balance in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 633-656, September.
    5. George Kapetanios & Elias Tzavalis, 2004. "The Impact of Large Structural Shocks on Economic Relationships: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 524, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    8. Ayoki, Milton & Obwona, Marios & Ogwapus, Moses, 2005. "Tax Reforms and Domestic Revenue Mobilization in Uganda," MPRA Paper 80328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
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    More about this item


    fiscal adjustment policies; fiscal deficit; public spending; economic policy shock; Tanzania;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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