IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v42y2014icp20-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigating the US consumer credit determinants using linear and non-linear cointegration techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Paradiso, Antonio
  • Kumar, Saten
  • Lucchetta, Marcella

Abstract

This paper has investigated the determinants of total consumer credit for the USA over the period 1968:Q1 to 2011:Q3. Using Breitung's (2001) non-parametric rank tests, we find the existence of linear cointegrating relationships in the consumer credit models. Enders and Siklos' (2001) threshold adjustment tests revealed that non-linearity is present slightly (with a statistical significance of 10% level) in the consumer credit model with a short-term interest rate (federal funds rate), while there exists a linear and symmetric cointegrating relationship in the models with medium (3years) and long (10years) term interest rates. Application of the linear cointegrating techniques (fully modified OLS, canonical cointegrating regression and general to specific) show that consumer credit responds more significantly to the medium and long-term interest rates than the short-term interest rate. We use these results to assess the popular belief that abnormality in the consumer credit set the stage for the 2007–08 crisis and severe recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Lucchetta, Marcella, 2014. "Investigating the US consumer credit determinants using linear and non-linear cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 20-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:20-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999314002028
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Hock-Ann Lee & Kian-Ping Lim, 2009. "Purchasing power parity in Asian economies: further evidence from rank tests for cointegration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 51-54.
    4. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Near Unit Root," Working Papers 9821, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    5. Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
    6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    7. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
    8. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    9. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    10. Yanqin Fan & Dong Li & Qi Li, 2004. "Nonlinearity in medical expenditures: a new semiparametric approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 911-916.
    11. Breitung, Jorg, 2001. "Rank Tests for Nonlinear Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 331-340, July.
    12. Andrew Benito & Haroon Mumtaz, 2006. "Consumption excess sensitivity, liquidity constraints and the collateral role of housing," Bank of England working papers 306, Bank of England.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    14. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    15. Perraudin, William R M & Sorensen, Bent E, 1992. "The Credit-Constrained Consumer: An Empirical Study of Demand and Supply in the Loan Market," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 179-192, April.
    16. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    17. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber, 2013. "Australasian money demand stability: application of structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1011-1025, March.
    18. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    19. Leonardo Gambacorta & Carlotta Rossi, 2010. "Modelling bank lending in the euro area: a nonlinear approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1099-1112.
    20. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    21. B. Bhaskara Rao & Rup Singh & Saten Kumar, 2010. "Do we need time series econometrics?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 695-697.
    22. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    23. Drake, Leigh M & Holmes, Mark J, 1997. "Adverse Selection and the Market for Building Society Mortgage Finance," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 58-70, January.
    24. Ana Del-Rí­o & Garry Young, 2005. "The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Bank of England working papers 263, Bank of England.
    25. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    26. Douglas Curtis, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Economic Activity in Canada in the 1990s," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 31(1), pages 59-78, March.
    27. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    28. Jonathan Crook, 2001. "The demand for household debt in the USA: evidence from the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finance," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 83-91.
    29. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João & Manrique, Marta, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank.
    30. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    31. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    32. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher, 2011. "Linear or nonlinear cointegration in the purchasing power parity relationship?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 185-196.
    33. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    34. Cox, Donald & Jappelli, Tullio, 1993. "The Effect of Borrowing Constraints on Consumer Liabilities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 197-213, May.
    35. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    36. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Multiperiod Consumption-Investment Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 163-174, March.
    37. Tullio Jappelli, 1990. "Who is Credit Constrained in the U. S. Economy?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 219-234.
    38. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    39. Silvia Magri, 2002. "Italian households' debt: determinants of demand and supply," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 454, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saten Kumar, 2016. "Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 194-215, May.
    2. Davis, Andrew & Kim, Jiseob, 2017. "Explaining changes in the US credit card market: Lenders are using more information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 76-92.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:20-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.