IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_650_07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling bank lending in the euro area: A non-linear approach

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Gambacorta

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Carlotta Rossi

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper investigates possible non-linearities in the response of bank lending to monetary policy shocks in the euro area. The credit market is modelled over the period 1985-2005 by means of an Asymmetric Vector Error Correction Model (AVECM) involving four endogenous variables (loans to the private sector, real GDP, lending rate, and consumer price index) and one exogenous variable (money market rate). The main features of the model are the existence of two co-integrating equations representing the long-run credit demand and supply and the possibility for loading and lagged-term coefficients to assume different values depending on the monetary policy regime (easing or tightening). The paper finds that the effect on credit, GDP, and prices of a monetary policy tightening is larger than the effect of a monetary policy easing. This result supports the existence of an asymmetric broad credit channel in the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Gambacorta & Carlotta Rossi, 2007. "Modelling bank lending in the euro area: A non-linear approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 650, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_650_07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007-0650/en_tema_650.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    2. Fase, M. M. G., 1995. "The demand for commercial bank loans and the lending rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-115, January.
    3. Leonardo Gambacorta & S. Iannotti, 2007. "Are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates to monetary shocks?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2503-2517.
    4. Kishan, Ruby P & Opiela, Timothy P, 2000. "Bank Size, Bank Capital, and the Bank Lending Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 121-141, February.
    5. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    6. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    7. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642.
    8. Charles Freedman, 1995. "The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy [speech]," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1995(Autumn), pages 53-59.
    9. Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(386), pages 327-352, June.
    10. O. de Bandt & C. Bruneau & W. El Amri, 2009. "Convergence in household credit demand across euro area countries: evidence from panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(27), pages 3447-3462.
    11. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1992. "Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, March.
    12. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
    13. Luca Casolaro & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2005. "Un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle famiglie in Italia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 58(229), pages 29-56.
    14. Nicoletti Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 63, European Central Bank.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    16. McCallum, John, 1991. "Credit Rationing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 946-951, September.
    17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall.
    18. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    19. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    20. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    21. Jeremy C. Stein, 1998. "An Adverse-Selection Model of Bank Asset and Liability Management with Implications for the Transmission of Monetary Policy," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 466-486, Autumn.
    22. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    24. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    25. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1993. "Economic Activity and the Short-term Credit Markets: An Analysis of Prices and Quantities," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 193-284.
    26. Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2006. "Non-linear dynamics in the euro area demand for M1," Working Paper Series 592, European Central Bank.
    27. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05.
    28. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    29. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937, December.
    30. Jan Kakes, 2000. "Monetary Transmission in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1947.
    31. Lim, G C, 2001. "Bank Interest Rate Adjustments: Are They Asymmetric?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 135-147, June.
    32. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    33. Melitz, Jacques & Pardue, Morris, 1973. "The Demand and Supply of Commercial Bank Loans," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 669-692, May.
    34. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    35. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
    36. Calza Alessandro & Sousa João, 2006. "Output and Inflation Responses to Credit Shocks: Are There Threshold Effects in the Euro Area?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, May.
    37. Lang, William W. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 1995. "'Flight to quality' in banking and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 145-164, August.
    38. Atanasova Christina, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Dynamics: A Nonlinear Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, December.
    39. Ehrmann, Michael & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    40. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    41. Michael Ehrmann & Leonardo Gambacorta & Jorge Martinez-PagÈs & Patrick Sevestre & Andreas Worms, 2003. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(1), pages 58-72.
    42. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, Joao, 2006. "Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 211-226, May.
    43. G.C. Lim, 2001. "Bank Interest Rate Adjustments: Are They Asymmetric?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 135-147, June.
    44. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "The role of banks in monetary policy: a survey with implications for the European Monetary Union," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 22(Sep), pages 2-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Onder Ozgur & Erdal Tanas Karagol & Fatih Cemil Ozbugday, 2021. "Machine learning approach to drivers of bank lending: evidence from an emerging economy," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    3. Jung, Alexander, 2020. "An empirical analysis of loan supply and demand in the euro area," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 187-201.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Isakin, Maksim & Serletis, Apostolos, 2019. "Banking technology in a Markov switching economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 154-168.
    6. Maria Grazia Miele, 2013. "The effects of capital requirements on real economy: a cointegrated VAR approach for US commercial banks," Working Papers in Public Economics 163, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    7. Borio, Claudio & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 217-231.
    8. Dobromił Serwa, 2012. "Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 1025-1040, March.
    9. Saten Kumar, 2016. "Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 194-215, May.
    10. Di Giulio, Daniele, 2009. "Bank lending to the production sector: credit crunch or extra-credit?," MPRA Paper 26824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2020. "Leverage Dynamics and the Burden of Debt," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 347-364, April.
    12. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Lucchetta, Marcella, 2014. "Investigating the US consumer credit determinants using linear and non-linear cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 20-28.
    13. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
    14. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2020. "Leverage Dynamics and the Burden of Debt," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 347-364, April.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2020. "Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations within the Eurozone: A Long-Memory Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8674, CESifo.
    16. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2015. "Leverage dynamics and the real burden of debt," BIS Working Papers 501, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Petar Peshev, 2014. "Credit dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 37-58,59-79.
    18. Kok, Christoffer & Rossi, Carlotta & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2009. "Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area," Working Paper Series 989, European Central Bank.
    19. Perevyshina, E. & Perevyshin, Y., 2015. "Evaluation of Credit Channel in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 96-110.
    20. Leontieva, E.A. & Perevyshin, Y.N., 2015. "Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in Russia," Published Papers 431505, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    21. Geun-Young Kim & Hail Park & Peter Tillmann, 2016. "The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on Emerging Market Economies: Breaks, Asymmetries and Fundamentals," Working Papers 2016-1, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saten Kumar, 2016. "Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 194-215, May.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Kok, Christoffer & Rossi, Carlotta & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2009. "Modelling loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area," Working Paper Series 989, European Central Bank.
    4. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    5. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, 2015. "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002, October.
    6. Hulsewig, Oliver & Mayer, Eric & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Bank loan supply and monetary policy transmission in Germany: An assessment based on matching impulse responses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2893-2910, October.
    7. Calza Alessandro & Sousa João, 2006. "Output and Inflation Responses to Credit Shocks: Are There Threshold Effects in the Euro Area?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, May.
    8. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2005. "Inside the bank lending channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1737-1759, October.
    9. Leonardo Gambacorta & S. Iannotti, 2007. "Are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates to monetary shocks?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2503-2517.
    10. Massimiliano Affinito & Fabio Farabullini, 2006. "An empirical analysis of national differences in the retail bank interest rates of the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 589, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Sajjad Zaheer & Steven Ongena & Sweder J.G. van Wijnbergen, 2013. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Through Conventional and Islamic Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 175-224, December.
    12. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2009. "Securitisation and the bank lending channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 996-1009, November.
    13. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2010. "Credit supply - Identifying balance-sheet channels with loan applications and granted loans," Working Paper Series 1179, European Central Bank.
    14. Christian Merkl & Stephanie Stolz, 2009. "Banks' regulatory buffers, liquidity networks and monetary policy transmission," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2013-2024.
    15. Leonardo Gambacorta & Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, 2014. "Bank Heterogeneity and Interest Rate Setting: What Lessons Have We Learned since Lehman Brothers?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 753-778, June.
    16. Altunbas, Yener & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2010. "Bank risk and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 121-129, September.
    17. Erdinç, Didar, 2013. "Monetary Transmission and Bank Lending Channel under the Currency Board: The Case of Bulgaria, 1999-2010," MPRA Paper 111539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ulrike Neyer, 2007. "Asymmetric Information and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 428-446, August.
    19. Lamont K. Black & Richard J. Rosen, 2007. "How the credit channel works: differentiating the bank lending channel and the balance sheet channel," Working Paper Series WP-07-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4726 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy transmission; credit market; credit view; asymmetries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_650_07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.