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Non-linear dynamics in the euro area demand for M1

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  • Calza, Alessandro
  • Zaghini, Andrea

Abstract

This paper investigates possible non-linearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is firstly estimated over a sample period covering the last three decades. While the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there are indications of non-linearity in the residuals of the error-correction model. This non-linearity is explicitly modelled using a fairly general Markov switching error-correction model with satisfactory results. The empirical findings of the paper are consistent with theoretical predictions stemming from "buffer stock" and "target-threshold" models and with analogous empirical evidence for European countries and the US. JEL Classification: E41, C22

Suggested Citation

  • Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2006. "Non-linear dynamics in the euro area demand for M1," Working Paper Series 592, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006592
    Note: 338639
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp592.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Robalo Marques, Carlos & Dias, Daniel & Santos Silva, João M. C., 2006. "Measuring the importance of the uniform nonsynchronization hypothesis," Working Paper Series 606, European Central Bank.
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    3. Leonardo Gambacorta & Carlotta Rossi, 2010. "Modelling bank lending in the euro area: a nonlinear approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1099-1112.
    4. Austin, Darran & Ward, Bert & Dalziel, Paul, 2007. "The demand for money in China 1987-2004: A non-linear modelling approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 190-204.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration; demand for money.; euro area; non-linear error correction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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