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Nonlinearities In The Dynamics Of The Euro Area Demand For M1

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  • Calza, Alessandro
  • Zaghini, Andrea

Abstract

This paper finds evidence of nonlinearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is first estimated over a sample period covering the past three decades. Although the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there are indications of nonlinearity in the residuals of the error-correction model. This nonlinearity is explicitly modeled using a fairly general Markov switching error-correction model with satisfactory results. The empirical findings of the paper are consistent with theoretical predictions of nonlinearities in the dynamics of adjustment to equilibrium stemming from “buffer stock” and “target-threshold” models and with analogous empirical evidence for European countries and the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2009. "Nonlinearities In The Dynamics Of The Euro Area Demand For M1," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:13:y:2009:i:01:p:1-19_07
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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