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Nonlinearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for M1

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Calza

    (European Central Bank)

  • Andrea Zaghini

    (Bank of Italy, Economics, Research and International Relations Area)

Abstract

The paper finds evidence of non-linearities in the dynamics of the euro-area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is first estimated over a sample period covering the last three decades. While the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there are indications of non-linearity in the residuals of the error-correction model. This non-linearity is explicitly modelled using a fairly general Markov switching error-correction model with satisfactory results. The empirical findings of the paper are consistent with theoretical predictions of non-linearities in the dynamics of adjustment to equilibrium stemming from "buffer stock" and "target-threshold" models and with analogous empirical evidence for European countries and the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Calza & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Nonlinearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for M1," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 690, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_690_08
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William A. Barnett, 2011. "Multilateral Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregation over Heterogeneous Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 6, pages 167-206, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Livio Stracca, 2003. "The Functional Form Of The Demand For Euro Area M1," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(2), pages 172-204, March.
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    4. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
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    7. Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
    8. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
    9. Ordonez, Javier, 2003. "Stability and non-linear dynamics in the broad demand for money in Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 139-146, January.
    10. Laidler, David, 1984. "The 'Buffer Stock' Notion in Monetary Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 17-34, Supplemen.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area; cointegration; non-linear error-correction; demand for money;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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