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The exit from non-conventional monetary policy: what challenges?

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  • Philip Turner

Abstract

Monetary policies pursued in response to the financial crisis have shown that changes in central bank balance sheets have major macroeconomic consequences. The New Classical Macroeconomics, which gained increasing sway from the late-1980s, had led to an exclusive focus on the policy rate and a neglect of balance sheet effects. Key financial market imperfections that had been demonstrated by earlier (or contemporaneous) advances in microeconomic theory were assumed away under the guise of Ricardian equivalence. Getting their balance sheets back to normal levels is important in order to preserve policy flexibility for the future, but will present central banks with formidable challenges. This task will require cooperation with Treasuries without surrendering monetary policy independence.As central banks pragmatically monitor market resilience, the financial dominance trap is to be avoided.

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  • Philip Turner, 2014. "The exit from non-conventional monetary policy: what challenges?," BIS Working Papers 448, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:448
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vayanos, Dimitri & Vila, Jean-Luc, 2009. "A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29308, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Ellison, Martin & Tischbirek, Andreas, 2014. "Unconventional government debt purchases as a supplement to conventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 199-217.
    3. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    4. Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    6. Franco Modigliani & Richard Sutch, 1967. "Debt Management and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis of Recent Experience," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 569-569.
    7. Hans J Blommestein & Philip Turner, 2012. "Interactions between sovereign debt management and monetary policy under fiscal dominance and financial instability," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 213-237 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
    9. Blaise Gadanecz & Aaron Mehrotra & Madhusudan S Mohanty, 2014. "Foreign exchange intervention and the banking system balance sheet in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 445, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-274, June.
    11. S. Blankenburg, 2014. "Introduction," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(6), pages 1295-1305.
    12. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2006. "Foreign exchange reserve accumulation in emerging markets: what are the domestic implications?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Taeyoon Sung & Jong-Hee Kim, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Global Liquidity Circulation, and Inflation Divergence around the World," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(1), pages 6-26, March.
    2. christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," BIS Working Papers 559, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. repec:cbi:qtbart:y:2017:m:07:p:48-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:cbi:qtbart:y:2017:m:07:p:63-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," DNB Working Papers 510, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:12:p:2752-2770 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:cbi:qtbart:y:2017:m:07:p:79-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Michal Franta & Tomas Holub & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2014. "The Exchange Rate as an Instrument at Zero Interest Rates: The Case of the Czech Republic," Research and Policy Notes 2014/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    9. Smeets Heinz-Dieter & Schmid Anita, 2014. "Europäische Staatsschuldenkrise, Lender of last resort und Bankenunion / European sovereign debt crisis, lender of last resort and banking union," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 65(1), pages 47-74, January.

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    Keywords

    Central bank balance sheet; fiscal dominance; financial dominance; exit strategy;

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