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Central Bank Losses and Economic Convergence

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Cincibuch
  • Tomas Holub
  • Jaromir Hurnik

Abstract

This paper discusses the issue of central bank losses, developing a framework for assessing the ability of a central bank to keep its balance sheet sustainable without having to default on its policy objectives. Compared to the earlier literature, it analyses in more depth the consequences of economic convergence for the evolution of the central bank’s balance sheet and the important role played in this process by the risk premium and equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation. A combination of a closed-form comparative-static analysis and numerical solutions of the future evolution of the central bank’s own capital is used. Applying the framework to the Czech National Bank’s case, the paper concludes that the CNB should be able to repay its accumulated loss in about 15 years without any transfer from public budgets.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Cincibuch & Tomas Holub & Jaromir Hurnik, 2008. "Central Bank Losses and Economic Convergence," Working Papers 2008/3, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2008/3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Feist, Holger, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The distribution of seigniorage wealth in EMU1," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 665-689, December.
    2. Peter Stella, 1997. "Do Central Banks Need Capital?," IMF Working Papers 97/83, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alain Ize, 2005. "Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 289-310, September.
    4. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2004. "Reserve accumulation: implications for global capital flows and financial markets," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 10(Sep).
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn & Holger Feist, 1997. "Eurowinners and Eurolosers: The Distribution of Seignorage Wealth in EMU," CESifo Working Paper Series 134, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Peter Stella, 2005. "Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 335-365, September.
    7. Åke Lönnberg & Peter Stella, 2008. "Issues in Central Bank Finance and Independence," IMF Working Papers 08/37, International Monetary Fund.
    8. George A Mackenzie & Peter Stella, 1996. "Quasi-Fiscal Operations of Public Financial Institutions," IMF Occasional Papers 142, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bindseil, Ulrich & Manzanares, Andrés & Weller, Benedict, 2004. "The role of central bank capital revisited," Working Paper Series 392, European Central Bank.
    10. Tomáš Holub, 2001. "Seignorage and Central Bank Finance," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 51(1), pages 9-32, January.
    11. Daniel Gros, 2004. "Profiting from the Euro? Seigniorage Gains from Euro Area Accession," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 795-813, November.
    12. John Hawkins, 2003. "Central bank balance sheets and fiscal operations," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal issues and central banking in emerging economies, volume 20, pages 71-83 Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Peter Stella & Åke Lonnberg, 2008. "Issues in central bank finance and independence," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," BIS Working Papers 559, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2013. "Central bank finances," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 71, June.
    3. Sona Benecka & Tomas Holub & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Ivana Kubicova, 2012. "Does Central Bank Financial Strength Matter for Inflation? An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 2012/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky.
    5. Pornpinun Chantapacdepong & Nuttathum Chutasripanich & Bovonvich Jindarak, 2012. "Central Bank Balance Sheet and Policy Implications," Working Papers 2012-07, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    6. Lubomír Lízal & Jirí Schwarz, 2013. "Foreign exchange interventions as an (un)conventional monetary policy tool," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 127-143 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Osama Sweidan, 2010. "Central bank inability and Taylor rule in developing countries," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 57(4), pages 395-409, December.
    8. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky.
    9. Karel Brůna, 2010. "Akumulace devizových rezerv centrálních bank a dynamika absorpce likvidity bankovních systémů České republiky, Polska a Maďarska
      [Central Bank´s Foreign Exchange Reserves Accumulation and Dynamics
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(6), pages 723-746.
    10. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:5:p:990-998 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," DNB Working Papers 510, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Atsushi Tanaka, 2013. "Central Bank Financial Strength and Credibility: A Simple Dynamic Optimization Model," Discussion Paper Series 102, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Mar 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance sheet; central bank; economic convergence; monetary policy; real appreciation; risk premium; seigniorage; transition.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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