Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data
We examine the daily exchange rate dynamics in selected new EU member states (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) using GARCH and TARCH models between 1999 and 2006. Despite these countries' adopted inflation targeting regime, they occasionally tried to manage their exchange rates. We find that the low credibility of exchange rate management implied higher volatility of exchange rates when it substantially deviated from the implicit target rates for all countries. Finally, we find significant asymmetric effects of the volatility of exchange rates in all analyzed countries.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Landshuter Str. 4, 93047 Regensburg|
Phone: +49-(0)941-943 54 10
Fax: +49-(0)941-943 54 27
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/621171
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006.
"Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
- Balazs Egert, 2006.
"Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1869, CESifo Group Munich.
- Egert, Balazs, 2007. "Central bank interventions, communication and interest rate policy in emerging European economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 387-413, June.
- Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0615, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
- Balázs Égert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," Working Papers 134, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000.
"Fear of Floating,"
NBER Working Papers
7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- BESSEC Marie, "undated". "The Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dynamics in the EMS: a Time-Varying Threshold Test," EcoMod2003 330700015, EcoMod.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
" Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2006. "Choice of exchange rate regime in transition economies: An empirical analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 484-498, September.
- Evzen Kocenda & Ali M. Kutan & Taner M. Yigit, 2005.
"Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How Far, How Fast?,"
CERGE-EI Working Papers
wp279, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Louis Kuijs & Alain Borghijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe; A Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 04/2, International Monetary Fund.
- Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006.
"Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience,"
Contemporary Economic Policy,
Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
- Tomas Holub, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Research and Policy Notes 2004/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Holub, Tomáš, 2004. "Foreign exchange interventions under inflation targeting: the Czech Experience," Research Notes 17, Deutsche Bank Research.
- Paul Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2005. "Nominal Versus Real Convergence - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 537-555, November.
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002.
"The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
- Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Baillie and Bollerslev GARCH models with day-of-week effects," Statistical Software Components RTZ00172, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Frommel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Exchange rate regimes in Central and East European countries: Deeds vs. words," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 467-483, September.
- Kempa, Bernd & Nelles, Michael, 1999. " The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 173-210, April.
- Bask, Mikael & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2006.
"Fundamentals and technical trading : behaviour of exchange rates in the CEECs,"
Research Discussion Papers
10/2006, Bank of Finland.
- Mikael Bask & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Fundamentals and Technical Trading: Behavior of Exchange Rates in the CEECs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 589-605, November.
- Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006.
"Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
- Juraj Valachy & Ev??en Ko?enda, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Volatility: Comparison of the Snake and Visegrad," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-622, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Takatoshi Ito & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2004.
"What Prompts Japan to Intervene in the Forex Market? A New Approach to a Reaction Function,"
NBER Working Papers
10456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
- Balazs Egert & Lubos Komarek, 2005.
"Foreign Exchange Interventions and Interest Rate Policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in Glove?,"
2005/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Egert, Balazs & Komarek, Lubos, 2006. "Foreign exchange interventions and interest rate policy in the Czech Republic: Hand in glove?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-140, June.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Wójcik, Cezary, 2008. "Catching-up and inflation differentials in a heterogeneous monetary union: Some implications for the euro area and new EU Member States," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 4-16, March.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, December.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Chung, Chae-Shick & Tauchen, George, 2001. "Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 255-269, July.
- Schnabl, Gunther, 2008.
"Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 70-91, March.
- Schnabl, Gunther, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery," Working Paper Series 0773, European Central Bank.
- José García-Solanes & Francisco I. Sancho-Portero & Fernando Torrejón-Flores, 2007.
"Beyond the Salassa-Samuelson Effect in some New Member States of the European Union,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1886, CESifo Group Munich.
- García-Solanes, José & Sancho-Portero, F. Israel & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson effect in some new member states of the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 17-32, March.
- Edison, Hali J. & Miller, Marcus H. & Williamson, John, 1987. "On evaluating and extending the target zone proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 199-224.
- Égert, Balázs & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2004.
"Equilibrium exchange rates in the transition : the tradable price-based real appreciation and estimation uncertainty,"
BOFIT Discussion Papers
9/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Bal??zs ??gert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Chmelarova, Viera & Schnabl, Gunther, 2006. "Exchange rate stabilization in developed and underdeveloped capital markets," Working Paper Series 0636, European Central Bank.
- Roman Horvath, 2007. "Ready for Euro? Evidence on EU new member states," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1083-1086.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:32:y:2008:i:1:p:103-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.