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Do Financial Variables Help Predict Macroeconomic Environment? The Case of the Czech Republic

Author

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  • Tomas Havranek
  • Roman Horvath
  • Jakub Mateju

Abstract

In this paper, we 1) examine the interactions of financial variables and the macroeconomy within the block-restriction vector autoregression model and 2) evaluate to what extent the financial variables improve the forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. For this reason, various financial variables are examined, including those unexplored in previous literature, such as the share of liquid assets in the banking industry and the loan loss provision rate. Our results suggest that financial variables have a systematic and statistically significant effect on macroeconomic fluctuations. In terms of forecast evaluation, financial variables in general seem to improve the forecast of macroeconomic variables, but the predictive performance of individual financial variables varies over time, in particular during the 2008–2009 crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Jakub Mateju, 2010. "Do Financial Variables Help Predict Macroeconomic Environment? The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2010/06, Czech National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2010/06
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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2010_06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
    2. Tomáš Holub, 2008. "Causes of Deviations from the CNB’s Inflation Targets: An Empirical Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 425-433, December.
    3. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2000. "Do Asset Prices Help to Predict Consumer Price Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 122-140, Supplemen.
    4. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    5. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
    6. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    7. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    8. Elbourne, Adam & de Haan, Jakob, 2006. "Financial structure and monetary policy transmission in transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-23, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova, 2013. "Evaluating the Links Between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2013/10, Czech National Bank.
    2. Konečný, Tomáš & Babecká Kucharčuková, Oxana, 2014. "Credit spreads and the links between the financial and real sectors in a small open economy: the case of the Czech Republic," Working Paper Series 1730, European Central Bank.
    3. Tomas Adam & Filip Novotny, 2018. "Assessing the External Demand of the Czech Economy: Nowcasting Foreign GDP Using Bridge Equations," Working Papers 2018/18, Czech National Bank.
    4. Miroslav Plasil & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac, 2015. "In the Quest of Measuring the Financial Cycle," Working Papers 2015/05, Czech National Bank.
    5. Gerard Tchouassi & Ngwen Ngangue, 2017. "Macroeconomic and Financial Shocks in African Franc Zone: Exploring the Nexus with Vector Autoregression," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(1), pages 145-161, January.
    6. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka, 2013. "Financial Stress Spillover and Financial Linkages between the Euro Area and the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 46-64, March.
    7. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:54:y:2016:i:4:p:296-318 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; macroeconomic and financial linkages; vector autoregressions.;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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