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Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions : a panel-VAR study

  • Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche

    ()

    (Swiss National Bank, Research Department)

  • Stefan Gerlach

    ()

    (Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability)

This paper studies the relationships between inflation, economic activity, credit, monetary policy, and residential property and equity prices in 17 OECD countries, using quarterly data for 1986-2006. Using a panel VAR, we find plausible and significant responses to a monetary policy shock. Shocks to asset prices have a positive, significant effect on GDP and credit after three to four quarters, whereas prices start to increase much later. We also consider the transmission of US shocks from the US to the other economies. While monetary policy shocks are transmitted internationally, other shocks are not, perhaps because of the form of coefficient restrictions used.

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File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/wp149en.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 149.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-24
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  1. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  2. PESARAN M. Hashem & SCHUERMANN Til & WEINER Scott, . "Modelling Regional Interdependencies using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," EcoMod2003 330700121, EcoMod.
  3. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
  5. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  6. Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 0240, European Central Bank.
  7. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  8. Donald L. Kohn, 2006. "Monetary policy and asset prices: a speech at “Monetary Policy: a Journey from Theory to Practice,” a European Central Bank Colloquium held in honor of Otmar Issing, Frankfurt, Germany, March 16, 2006," Speech 174, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  10. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, Junio.
  11. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05.
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