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Cross-country evidence on the relation between stock prices and the current account

  • Berg, Tim Oliver

This paper explores the relation between stock prices and the current account for 17 OECD countries in 1980-2007. I use a panel vector autoregression (VAR) to compare the effects of stock price shocks to those originating from monetary policy and exchange rates. While monetary policy shocks have little effects, shocks to stock prices and exchange rates have sizeable effects. A 10% contraction in stock prices improves the current account by 0.3% after two years. Hence I find a channel, in addition to the traditional exchange rate channel, through which external balance for an OECD country with a current account imbalance can be restored.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23976.

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Date of creation: 19 May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23976
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  1. Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 271, Econometric Society.
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  9. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "The Dot-Com Bubble the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account," NBER Working Papers 11543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pesaran, M.H. & Weiner, S.M., 2001. "Modelling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  12. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
  13. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Working Paper Series 0509, European Central Bank.
  14. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  16. Barnett, Alina & Straub, Roland, 2008. "What drives U.S. current account fluctuations?," Working Paper Series 0959, European Central Bank.
  17. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
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