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Policy transmissions, external imbalances, and their impacts: Cross-country evidence from BRICS

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  • YUAN, Chunming
  • CHEN, Ruo

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical exploration of the interaction between fiscal policy, monetary policy, exchange rates, and external balances as well as their impacts on real economic growth and inflation for the BRICS countries. A panel VAR model is employed to assess the dynamic relationships. Our results generally confirm the significant impacts of a monetary shock on real economic activity but the effect of fiscal policy appears to be much weaker from the cross-country perspective. We do not find evidence supporting the “twin deficits” hypothesis but the positive interaction between inflation and interest rates – the “price puzzle” – is documented. When bilateral exchange rates and trade deficits (vis-à-vis the US) are used, we find that the BRICS–US bilateral trade balances do not react considerably to currency depreciation shocks, indicating that exchange rates may not play a critical role in the adjustment of large trade deficits for the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • YUAN, Chunming & CHEN, Ruo, 2015. "Policy transmissions, external imbalances, and their impacts: Cross-country evidence from BRICS," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:33:y:2015:i:c:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2014.12.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Monetary policy; External imbalances; BRICS; Panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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