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International Spillovers of ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Effect on Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Klara Halova
  • Roman Horvath

Abstract

We examine how unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank influences macroeconomic stability in Central and Eastern European economies. We estimate various panel vector autoregressions using monthly data from 2008-2014. Using the shadow policy rate and central bank assets as measures of unconventional policies, we find that output and prices in Central and Eastern Europe temporarily increase following an expansionary unconventional monetary policy shock by the European Central Bank. Using both impulse responses and variance decompositions, we find that the effect of unconventional policies on output is much stronger than the effect on inflation. In addition, our results provide evidence that unconventional policy tends to reduce market uncertainty and domestic interest rates but that the effect on the real exchange rate is not significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Klara Halova & Roman Horvath, 2015. "International Spillovers of ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Effect on Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 351, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    • Handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hajek, Jan & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 91-105.
    2. Schilirò, Daniele, 2017. "Imbalances and policies in the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 82847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Spillover effects from euro area monetary policy across the EU: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Kiel Working Papers 2033, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Ouerk, Salima, 2023. "ECB unconventional monetary policy and volatile bank flows: Spillover effects on emerging market economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 175-211.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Christian Fahrholz, 2018. "Emerging and small open economies, unconventional monetary policy and exchange rates – a survey," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 331-352, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional Monetary Policy; ECB; Central and Eastern Europe; Panel Vector Autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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