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International spillovers of ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: the effect on Central Europe

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  • Roman Horvath
  • Klara Voslarova

Abstract

We examine how unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) influences macroeconomic stability in three Central European economies. We estimate various panel vector autoregressions (PVARs) using monthly data from 2008 to 2014. Using the shadow policy rate and central bank assets as measures of unconventional policies, we find that output growth and inflation in Central Europe temporarily increase following an expansionary unconventional monetary policy shock by the ECB. Using both impulse responses and variance decompositions, we find that the effect of unconventional policies on output growth is much stronger than the effect on inflation.

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  • Roman Horvath & Klara Voslarova, 2017. "International spillovers of ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: the effect on Central Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(24), pages 2352-2364, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:24:p:2352-2364
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1237764
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    2. Lorant Kaszab & Mark Antal, 2021. "Spillover Effects of the European Central Bank's Expanded Asset Purchase Program to Non-eurozone Countries in Central and Eastern Europe," MNB Occasional Papers 2021/140, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Bartkiewicz Piotr, 2018. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Emerging Markets – Literature Review," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 67-76, December.
    4. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2021. "How have the European central bank’s monetary policies been affecting financial markets in CEE-3 countries?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 43-83, March.
    5. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    6. Schilirò, Daniele, 2017. "Imbalances and policies in the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 82847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    8. Koráb, Petr & Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Dibooglu, Sel, 2021. "Effects of quantitative easing on firm performance in the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Shadow of the colossus: Euro area spillovers and monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Geis, André & Moder, Isabella & Schuler, Tobias, 2020. "Who’s afraid of euro area monetary tightening? CESEE shouldn’t," Working Paper Series 2416, European Central Bank.
    11. Akbari Dehbaghi, Simin & Arman, Seyed Aziz & Ahangari, Majid, 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Monetary Policy on Iran\'s economy: Global Modeling," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 15(2), pages 151-180, April.
    12. Andrea Colabella, 2019. "Do the ECB’s monetary policies benefit emerging market economies? A GVAR analysis on the crisis and post-crisis period," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1207, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Ryou, Jai Won & Baak, Saang Joon & Kim, Won Joong, 2019. "Effects of Japanese quantitative easing policy on the economies of Japan and Korea," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 241-252.
    14. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    15. Nicolae-Bogdan IANC & Adrian-Marius IONESCU, 2021. "Do Central and Eastern Countries benefit from ECB’s unconventional monetary policies?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2898, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    16. Irfan Ahmed & Claudio Socci & Francesca Severini & Rosita Pretaroli & Hassan Kasady Al Mahdi, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and real estate sector: a financial dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Italy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 221-238, April.
    17. Ansgar Belke & Christian Fahrholz, 2018. "Emerging and small open economies, unconventional monetary policy and exchange rates – a survey," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 331-352, April.

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