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The Spillover Effect of Euro Area on Central and Southeastern European Economies: A Global VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Hájek

    () (Czech National Bank
    Charles University)

  • Roman Horváth

    () (Charles University)

Abstract

Abstract We use the global vector autoregression model to examine macroeconomic spillovers within the European Union over the period 2000-2014. We investigate how shocks originating in the euro area affect output and prices in the rest of Europe. We examine four different policy relevant shock scenarios: (i) increase in the euro area interest rate; (ii) increase in the euro area industrial production; (iii) decrease in the euro area consumer prices and (iv) decrease in global oil prices. In general, we find that these shocks have an effect of same (and expected) sign but of different size across the European Union. Our results suggest that the response of Central European countries to the euro area shocks is almost as strong as the response of the euro area countries itself. On the other hand, our results indicate that South East Europe is somewhat less sensitive to the euro area shocks and oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hájek & Roman Horváth, 2016. "The Spillover Effect of Euro Area on Central and Southeastern European Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 359-385, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:27:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11079-015-9378-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-015-9378-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    2. repec:eee:ecosys:v:42:y:2018:i:1:p:91-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:1:p:74-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2018. "Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 74-96.
    5. Jan Hajek & Roman Horvath, 2017. "International Spillovers of (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy: The Effect of the ECB and US Fed on Non-Euro EU Countries," Working Papers 2017/05, Czech National Bank.
    6. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2017. "Propagation of economic shocks from Russia and Western European countries to CEE-Baltic countries: a comparative analysis," CQE Working Papers 6517, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    7. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:24:p:2352-2364 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global VAR; Monetary policy; International transmission of shocks; Euro area; Central and Southeastern Europe; Foreign shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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