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Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach

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  • Potjagailo, Galina

Abstract

I analyze spillover effects from a Euro area monetary policy shock to fourteen European countries outside the Euro area. The analysis is based on a factor-augmented VAR model with two blocks, which exploits a large cross-country data set. After a Euro area monetary policy expansion, production increases in most non-Euro area countries, whereas short-term interest rates and financial uncertainty decline. These effects are on average comparable to the responses in the aggregate Euro area. However, the size of spillover effects varies with country characteristics. Spillovers on production are larger in non-Euro area economies with higher trade openness, whereas financial variables react to a higher extent in countries with higher financial integration. Regarding the exchange rate regime, countries with fixed exchange rates show stronger spillovers both in terms of production and interest rates. Finally, prices increase in Western European economies outside the Euro area, but decline or do not respond in Central and Eastern Europe.

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  • Potjagailo, Galina, 2017. "Spillover effects from Euro area monetary policy across Europe: A factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 127-147.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:72:y:2017:i:c:p:127-147
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.01.003
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    1. repec:eee:ecosys:v:42:y:2018:i:1:p:91-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:1:p:74-96 is not listed on IDEAS
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    5. Jan Hajek & Roman Horvath, 2017. "International Spillovers of (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy: The Effect of the ECB and US Fed on Non-Euro EU Countries," Working Papers IES 2017/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2017.
    6. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2018. "Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 74-96.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Euro area; Central and Eastern Europe; Exchange rate regime; Factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR);

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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