IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/integr/0789.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spillover Effects of Trade Shocks in the Central and Eastern European and Baltic Countries

Author

Listed:

Abstract

How does a trade shock occurring in each Central and Eastern European and Baltic country affect the economic growth and inflation of other CEE-Baltic countries? This paper addresses this question by comparing the spillover effects of trade shocks using a global vector auto-regression model with 10 CEE-Baltic countries. In constructing the foreign variables, a time-varying trade weight is used instead of a fixed weight. Oil price is included as a global variable because of its importance to the countries in the region. The results demonstrate that the trade spillover effects are strong in the region and have a positive impact on economic growth and inflation in the region. However, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland play a greater role in this transmission process than the other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2020. "Spillover Effects of Trade Shocks in the Central and Eastern European and Baltic Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 35(1), pages 39-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0789
    DOI: 10.11130/jei.2020.35.1.39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.e-jei.org
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2020.35.1.39
    File Function: Full text file
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11130/jei.2020.35.1.39?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    2. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Majid Mohammadi Hossein Abadi & Rosa Farboudmanesh, 2016. "Response of macro variables of emerging and developed oil importers to oil price movements," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 91-102, January.
    3. Bettendorf, Timo, 2017. "Investigating Global Imbalances: Empirical evidence from a GVAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 201-210.
    4. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Fabien Rondeau, 2015. "Trade spillovers on output growth during the 2008 financial crisis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 36-47.
    5. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    6. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    8. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    9. Keppel, Catherine & Prettner, Klaus, 2015. "How interdependent are Eastern European economies and the Euro area?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 18-31.
    10. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
    11. Stephen Leybourne & Tae‐Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2005. "Examination of Some More Powerful Modifications of the Dickey–Fuller Test," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 355-369, May.
    12. Barry Harrison & Winston Moore, 2009. "Spillover effects from London and Frankfurt to Central and Eastern European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1509-1521.
    13. Rahmi Cetin & Robert Ackrill, 2018. "Exports, imports, growth and causality: a study of Slovakia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 395-404, May.
    14. Dan Andrews & Daniel Rees, 2009. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Terms of Trade Shocks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2009-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Serwa, Dobromil & Bohl, Martin T., 2005. "Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 344-362, September.
    16. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
    17. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    18. Horvath Roman & Rusnak Marek, 2009. "How Important Are Foreign Shocks in a Small Open Economy? The Case of Slovakia," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
    20. Katja Mann, 2015. "The EU, a Growth Engine? The Impact of European Integration on Economic Growth in Central Eastern Europe," FIW Working Paper series 136, FIW.
    21. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodriguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balazs Egert, 2010. "The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 3080, CESifo.
    22. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Fabien Rondeau, 2015. "Trade spillovers on output growth during the 2008 financial crisis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 36-47.
    23. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    24. Çakır, Mustafa Yavuz & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Trade shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 190-202.
    25. Farhad Taghizadeh Hesary & Naoyuki Yoshino & Ghahraman Abdoli & Asadollah Farzinvash, 2013. "An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 8(4), pages 571-591, December.
    26. Tommaso Nannicini & Andreas Billmeier, 2011. "Economies in Transition: How Important Is Trade Openness for Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 287-314, June.
    27. Piatkowski,Marcin, 2013. "Poland's new golden age : shifting from Europe's periphery to its center," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6639, The World Bank.
    28. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    29. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2011:i:3:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Konstantins Benkovskis & Andrejs Bessonovs & Martin Feldkircher & Julia Wörz, 2011. "The Transmission of Euro Area Monetary Shocks to the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary: Evidence from a FAVAR Model," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-36.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cruzatti C., John, 2021. "Free Trade Agreements and Development: a Global Analysis with Local Data," Working Papers 0702, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    2. Mala Raghavan & Faisal Khan & Sonia Kumari Selvarajan & Evelyn S. Devadason, 2023. "Cross‐country linkages between ASEAN and non‐ASEAN‐RCEP member states: A global VAR analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1782-1814, June.
    3. Ardiyono, Sulistiyo K. & Patunru, Arianto A., 2023. "Firms’ responses to foreign demand shocks: Evidence from Indonesia after the global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2020. "Propagation of economic shocks from Russia and Western European countries to CEE-Baltic countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(3), pages 489-512, September.
    2. Nazmus Sadat Khan, 2017. "Propagation of economic shocks from Russia and Western European countries to CEE-Baltic countries: a comparative analysis," CQE Working Papers 6517, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    3. Koukouritakis, Minoas & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P. & Yannopoulos, Andreas, 2015. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European countries: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 129-154.
    4. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    5. Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2020. "Revisiting the effects of NAFTA," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-16.
    6. Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-75, January.
    7. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    8. Jan Hájek & Roman Horváth, 2016. "The Spillover Effect of Euro Area on Central and Southeastern European Economies: A Global VAR Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 359-385, April.
    9. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    10. Minoas Koukouritakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos & Andreas Yannopoulos, 2014. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European Countries: A VECMX* Analysis," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance, volume 23, pages 185-216, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. Moisă ALTAR & Adrian IFRIM & Adam-Nelu ALTAR - SAMUEL, 2015. "Eastern Europe In The World Economy : A Global Var Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-26, September.
    12. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    13. Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P., 2019. "Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 142-160.
    14. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka S. & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2021. "Global imbalances, external adjustment and propagated shocks: An African perspective from a global VAR model," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 186-203.
    15. Kempa, Bernd & Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2017. "Spillover effects of debt and growth in the euro area: Evidence from a GVAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 102-111.
    16. Artha Hoxha, 2018. "Explaining the impact of the global financial crisis on European transition countries: a GVAR approach," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2-18, pages 81-97.
    17. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    18. Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    19. Xu, T.T., 2012. "The role of credit in international business cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1202, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Spillover Effects; Global Vector Auto-Regression; Central and Eastern European and Baltic Countries.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0789. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yunhoe Kim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desejkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.