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Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries

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  • Samargandi, Nahla
  • Kutan, Ali M.

Abstract

This paper explores cross-country evidence of the effects of private credit shocks on economic growth. It employs a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, which allows us to capture the dynamics of this relationship in a multi-country setting, and connects countries through bilateral international trade. Given the progressive role that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) play in the world economy, this paper focuses on whether private credit shocks in one BRICS member state affects economic growth in the other BRICS. To this end, the paper finds empirical evidence that credit to the private sector has a positive spillover effect on growth in some of the BRICS countries, specifically in China and India. Policy implications of findings are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:44:y:2016:i:c:p:56-84
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2016.04.010
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    8. Qureshi, Fiza & Khan, Habib Hussain & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Ghafoor, Abdul & Qureshi, Saba, 2019. "Mutual fund flows and investors’ expectations in BRICS economies: Implications for international diversification," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 130-150.
    9. Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.
    10. Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 988-1006.
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    12. Gannon, Gerard L. & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2017. "Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: Evidence from Latin AmericaAuthor-Name: Batten, Jonathan A," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 328-350.
    13. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Cleiton Guollo Taufemback & Satish Kumar, 2021. "A Sequential Bayesian Change-Point Analysis of BRICS Currency Returns," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(2), pages 393-402, June.
    14. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Seyedmehdi Hosseini & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2017. "Does Global Fear Predict Fear in BRICS Stock Markets? Evidence from a Bayesian Graphical VAR Model," Working Papers 201704, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Qureshi, Fiza & Kutan, Ali M. & Ismail, Izlin & Gee, Chan Sok, 2017. "Mutual funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of Asian emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 176-192.
    16. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2020. "Insurance activity, real output, and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 207-215.
    17. Vieira, Flávio Vilela & Silva, Cleomar Gomes da, 2023. "Looking for asymmetries between credit and output in the BRICS countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-52.
    18. Rahman, Sami Ur & Faisal, Faisal & Ali, Adnan & Sulimany, Hamid Ghazi H & Bazhair, Ayman Hassan, 2023. "Do financial technology and financial development lessen shadow economy? Evidence from BRICST economies using heterogenous bootstrap panel causality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 201-210.
    19. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M. & Sohag, Kazi & Alqahtani, Faisal, 2020. "Equity market and money supply spillovers and economic growth in BRICS economies: A global vector autoregressive approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    20. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Hosseini, Seyedmehdi & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2018. "Does global fear predict fear in BRICS stock markets? Evidence from a Bayesian Graphical Structural VAR model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 124-142.
    21. Gozgor, Giray & Demir, Ender & Belas, Jaroslav & Yesilyurt, Serkan, 2019. "Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? an empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    22. Vít Pošta & Aziya Mukusheva & Nurilya Kuchukova, 2022. "Economic Performance and Financial Stability: Case of the Eurasian Economic Union," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 22-35, January.
    23. Kumar, Satish & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Chauhan, Yogesh & Ji, Qiang, 2019. "Dependence structure between the BRICS foreign exchange and stock markets using the dependence-switching copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 273-284.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International financial development spillovers; Economic growth; Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model; Global interdependencies; BRICS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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