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The African Credit Trap

Author

Listed:
  • Svetlana Andrianova

    () (University of Leicester)

  • Badi H. Baltagi

    () (Syracuse University, U.S., and University of Leicester, U.K.)

  • Panicos O. Demetriades

    () (University of Leicester)

  • David Fielding

    () (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

Abstract

We put forward a plausible explanation of African financial underdevelopment in the form of a bad credit market equilibrium. Utilising an appropriately modified IO model of banking, we show that the root of the problem could be unchecked moral hazard (strategic loan defaults) or adverse selection (a lack of good projects). We provide empirical evidence from a large panel of African banks which suggests that loan defaults are a major factor inhibiting bank lending when the quality of regulation is poor. We also find that once a threshold level of regulatory quality has been reached, improvements in the default rate or regulatory quality do not matter, providing support for our theoretical predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Svetlana Andrianova & Badi H. Baltagi & Panicos O. Demetriades & David Fielding, 2010. "The African Credit Trap," Working Papers 1004, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
  • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1004
    as

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    File URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/research/otago077131.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    3. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    4. Andrianova, Svetlana & Demetriades, Panicos & Shortland, Anja, 2008. "Government ownership of banks, institutions, and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 218-252, February.
    5. Paul Milgrom., 1987. "Adverse Selection without Hidden Information," Economics Working Papers 8742, University of California at Berkeley.
    6. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937, January.
    7. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Demetriades, Panicos O. & James, Gregory A., 2011. "Finance and growth in Africa: The broken link," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 263-265.
    2. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic panel data; African financial under-development; African credit markets;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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