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Macroprudential policy instruments and procyclicality of loan-loss provisions – Cross-country evidence

Author

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  • Olszak, Małgorzata
  • Roszkowska, Sylwia
  • Kowalska, Iwona

Abstract

We analyze the effectiveness of various macroprudential policy instruments in reducing the procyclicality of loan-loss provisions (LLPs) using individual bank information from over 65 countries and applying the two-step GMM Blundell-Bond (1998) approach with robust standard errors. Our research identifies several new facts. Firstly, borrower restrictions are definitely more effective in reducing the procyclicality of loan-loss provisions than other macroprudential policy instruments. This effect is supported in both unconsolidated and consolidated data and is robust to several robustness checks. Secondly, dynamic provisions, large exposure concentration limits and taxes on specific assets are effective in reducing the procyclicality of loan-loss provisions. And finally, we find that both loan-to-value caps and debt-to-income ratios, are especially effective in reducing the procyclicality of LLP of large banks. Concentration limits and taxes are also effective in reducing the procyclicality of LLP of large banks. Dynamic provisions reduce the procyclicality of LLP independently of bank size.

Suggested Citation

  • Olszak, Małgorzata & Roszkowska, Sylwia & Kowalska, Iwona, 2018. "Macroprudential policy instruments and procyclicality of loan-loss provisions – Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 228-257.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:54:y:2018:i:c:p:228-257
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2018.01.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Qiaoling & Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2024. "Reining in the riskiest? Evidence of non-linear impacts of macroprudential regulations on bank systemic risk in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Changjun Zheng & Sinamenye Jean-Petit, 2023. "The Effects of the Interactions Between Agro-Production, Economic, and Financial Development on Bank Sustainability," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    3. Małgorzata Olszak & Sylwia Roszkowska & Iwona Kowalska, 2018. "The Joint Effect Of Borrower Targeted Macroprudential Instruments And Capital Regulations On Procyclicality Of Loan-Loss Provisions," Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7(3), pages 29-53.
    4. Olszak, Małgorzata & Kowalska, Iwona, 2022. "Does bank competition matter for the effects of macroprudential policy on the procyclicality of lending?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Olszak, Małgorzata & Godlewski, Christophe J. & Roszkowska, Sylwia & Skała, Dorota, 2025. "Loan loss provisions of European banks – Does macroprudential tightening matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB).
    6. Xing Zhang & Fengchao Li & Zhen Li & Yingying Xu, 2018. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Cycle, and Bank Risk-Taking," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Oren Mooneeapen & Phillip de Jager, 2025. "A global snapshot on the cyclicality of provisions: unveiling IFRS 9’s impact," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(3), pages 518-530, September.
    8. Ćehajić, Aida & Košak, Marko, 2022. "Bank lending and small and medium-sized enterprises’ access to finance – Effects of macroprudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Skała, Dorota, 2020. "Shareholder shocks and loan loss provisions in Central European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Hangjuan & Wu, Jiaqi & You, Linqing, 2025. "Macroprudential assessment framework and firms’ access to bank credit: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Ćehajić, Aida & Košak, Marko, 2021. "Macroprudential measures and developments in bank funding costs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Hong, Pei-Hsuan & Lin, Weizheng, 2024. "Environmental policy stringency and bank risks: Does green economy matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    13. Godlewski, Christophe J. & Olszak, Małgorzata, 2025. "Macroprudential policy and corporate loans: evidence from the syndicated loan market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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