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A momentum threshold model of stock prices and country risk ratings: Evidence from BRICS countries

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  • Liu, Tengdong
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  • Thompson, Mark A.

Abstract

We develop a multivariate momentum threshold autoregression (MTAR) model that examines the relationship between stock markets for each of the five BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – and changes in their economic, financial and political country risk ratings in response to positive and negative shocks. The findings suggest that the long-run and short-run relationships between the stock market and the three risk ratings variables of each country respond asymmetrically to shocks for all of the five BRICS, but at different speeds and depending on the direction of the shock, underpinning the differences in profit opportunities among these countries. The adjustment is faster for the individual BRICS following a positive shock (than a negative shock), except for Russia. Despite their grouping, the stock markets of the five BRICS countries are dissimilar and can add to diversification benefits in portfolios.

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  • Liu, Tengdong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Thompson, Mark A., 2013. "A momentum threshold model of stock prices and country risk ratings: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 99-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:99-112
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2013.07.013
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    2. Seyed Alireza Athari & Chafic Saliba & Danielle Khalife & Madonna Salameh-Ayanian, 2023. "The Role of Country Governance in Achieving the Banking Sector’s Sustainability in Vulnerable Environments: New Insight from Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, July.
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    5. Chien‐Chiang Lee & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Donald Lien, 2019. "Do country risk and financial uncertainty matter for energy commodity futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 366-383, March.
    6. Batten, Jonathan A. & Szilagyi, Peter G., 2016. "The internationalisation of the RMB: New starts, jumps and tipping points," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
    7. Ayesha Siddiqui & Mohd Shamim & Mohammad Asif & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2022. "Are Stock Markets among BRICS Members Integrated? A Regime Shift-Based Co-Integration Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-25, April.
    8. Vuong, Giang Thi Huong & Nguyen, Manh Huu & Huynh, Anh Ngoc Quang, 2022. "Volatility spillovers from the Chinese stock market to the U.S. stock market: The role of the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    9. Chafic Saliba & Panteha Farmanesh & Seyed Alireza Athari, 2023. "Does country risk impact the banking sectors’ non-performing loans? Evidence from BRICS emerging economies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    10. de Oliveira, Felipe A. & Maia, Sinézio F. & de Jesus, Diego P. & Besarria, Cássio da N., 2018. "Which information matters to market risk spreading in Brazil? Volatility transmission modelling using MGARCH-BEKK, DCC, t-Copulas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-100.
    11. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "A cross-volatility index for hedging the country risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 25-41.
    12. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Wali, Muammer & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2020. "Islamic stocks, conventional stocks, and crude oil: Directional volatility spillover analysis in BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2016. "Global financial crisis and spillover effects among the U.S. and BRICS stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 257-276.
    14. Chkili, Walid, 2016. "Dynamic correlations and hedging effectiveness between gold and stock markets: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 22-34.
    15. Walid Mensi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Seong-Min Yoon & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2016. "Asymmetric Linkages between BRICS Stock Returns and Country Risk Ratings: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Threshold Models," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, February.
    16. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Do global factors impact BRICS stock markets? A quantile regression approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 1-17.
    17. Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2015. "Does sovereign creditworthiness affect bank valuations in emerging markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 113-129.
    18. Luo, Changqing & Liu, Lan & Wang, Da, 2021. "Multiscale financial risk contagion between international stock markets: Evidence from EMD-Copula-CoVaR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Felipe de Oliveira & Sinézio Fernandes Maia & Diego Pita de Jesus, 2017. "Which information matters to Market risk spreading in Brazil? Volatility transmission modeling using MGARH-BEKK, DCC, t-COPULAS," EcoMod2017 10378, EcoMod.
    20. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Country risk ratings; Asymmetry; Multivariate MTAR model; Convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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