Country risk measures: how risky are they?
As global competition drives corporations into distant, unfamiliar markets, managers are searching for ways to minimize their uncertainty. When formulating their strategies for such environments, managers frequently rely on country risk analysis. Assuming that country risk analysis is an objective, fact-finding process, many managers fail to question these risk reports. The focus of this paper is on the usefulness of these country risk measures. Specifically, the purpose is to investigate the extent to which country risk measures can predict periods of intense instability. We examine eleven widely used measures of country risk across seventeen countries during a nineteen-year time period. Currency fluctuations are used as a surrogate for overall country risk. Results from the empirical analysis indicate that commercial risk measures are very poor at predicting actual realized risks. This result raises important questions about the usefulness of these measures and why managers still choose to use them.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 36 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620401/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620401/bibliographic|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August.
- Fatehi, Kamal & Hossein Safizadeh, M., 1994. "The effect of sociopolitical instability on the flow of different types of foreign direct investment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-73, September.
- Hassler, J., 1995.
"Regime Shifts and Volatility Spillovers on International Stock Markets,"
603, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Hassler., John, 1997. "Regime Shifts and Volatility Spillovers on International Stock Markets," Seminar Papers 603, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
- Kent D Miller, 1992. "A Framework for Integrated Risk Management in International Business," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(2), pages 311-331, June.
- Miller, K.D., 1993. "Industry and Country Effects on Manager's Perceptions of Environmental Uncertainties," Papers 93-105, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
- Jean-Claude Cosset & Jean-Marc Suret, 1995. "Political Risk and the Benefits of International Portfolio Diversification," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(2), pages 301-318, June.
- Thomas L Brewer, 1983. "Political Sources of Risk in the International Money Markets: Conceptual, Methodological, and Interpretive Refinements," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(1), pages 161-164, March.
- Geczy, Christopher & Minton, Bernadette A & Schrand, Catherine, 1997. " Why Firms Use Currency Derivatives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1323-54, September.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Timothy A Luehrman, 1990. "The Exchange Rate Exposure of a Global Competitor," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 225-242, June.
- Michael G Harvey, 1993. "A Survey of Corporate Programs for Managing Terrorist Threats," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 465-478, September.
- Jean-Claude Cosset & Jean Roy, 1991. "The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 135-142, March.
- Masson, Paul R, 1995. "Gaining and Losing ERM Credibility: The Case of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 571-82, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:worbus:v:36:y:2001:i:2:p:128-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.