IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/worbus/v36y2001i2p128-145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Country risk measures: how risky are they?

Author

Listed:
  • Oetzel, Jennifer M.
  • Bettis, Richard A.
  • Zenner, Marc

Abstract

As global competition drives corporations into distant, unfamiliar markets, managers are searching for ways to minimize their uncertainty. When formulating their strategies for such environments, managers frequently rely on country risk analysis. Assuming that country risk analysis is an objective, fact-finding process, many managers fail to question these risk reports. The focus of this paper is on the usefulness of these country risk measures. Specifically, the purpose is to investigate the extent to which country risk measures can predict periods of intense instability. We examine eleven widely used measures of country risk across seventeen countries during a nineteen-year time period. Currency fluctuations are used as a surrogate for overall country risk. Results from the empirical analysis indicate that commercial risk measures are very poor at predicting actual realized risks. This result raises important questions about the usefulness of these measures and why managers still choose to use them.

Suggested Citation

  • Oetzel, Jennifer M. & Bettis, Richard A. & Zenner, Marc, 2001. "Country risk measures: how risky are they?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 128-145, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:worbus:v:36:y:2001:i:2:p:128-145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090951601000499
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassler, J., 1995. "Regime Shifts and Volatility Spillovers on International Stock Markets," Papers 603, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    2. Thomas L Brewer, 1983. "Political Sources of Risk in the International Money Markets: Conceptual, Methodological, and Interpretive Refinements," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 14(1), pages 161-164, March.
    3. Kent D Miller, 1992. "A Framework for Integrated Risk Management in International Business," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 23(2), pages 311-331, June.
    4. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-166, February.
    5. Christopher Gresov & Heather A. Haveman & Terence A. Oliva, 1993. "Organizational Design, Inertia and the Dynamics of Competitive Response," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 181-208, May.
    6. Fatehi, Kamal & Hossein Safizadeh, M., 1994. "The effect of sociopolitical instability on the flow of different types of foreign direct investment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-73, September.
    7. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    8. Masson, Paul R, 1995. "Gaining and Losing ERM Credibility: The Case of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 571-582, May.
    9. Geczy, Christopher & Minton, Bernadette A & Schrand, Catherine, 1997. "Why Firms Use Currency Derivatives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1323-1354, September.
    10. Jean-Claude Cosset & Jean-Marc Suret, 1995. "Political Risk and the Benefits of International Portfolio Diversification," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 26(2), pages 301-318, June.
    11. Michael G Harvey, 1993. "A Survey of Corporate Programs for Managing Terrorist Threats," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 24(3), pages 465-478, September.
    12. Jean-Claude Cosset & Jean Roy, 1991. "The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 22(1), pages 135-142, March.
    13. Timothy A Luehrman, 1990. "The Exchange Rate Exposure of a Global Competitor," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 21(2), pages 225-242, June.
    14. Kent D Miller, 1993. "Industry and Country Effects on Managers′ Perceptions of Environmental Uncertainties," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 24(4), pages 693-714, December.
    15. Miller, K.D., 1993. "Industry and Country Effects on Manager's Perceptions of Environmental Uncertainties," Papers 93-105, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
    16. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-770, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anthony Goerzen & Stephen Sapp & Andrew Delios, 2010. "Investor Response to Environmental Risk in Foreign Direct Investment," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 683-708, December.
    2. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Does hedging tell the full story? : Reconciling differences in US aggregate and industry-level exchange rate risk premia," Research Discussion Papers 14/2008, Bank of Finland.
    3. Demirbag, Mehmet & McGuinness, Martina & Akin, Ahmet & Bayyurt, Nizamettin & Basti, Eyup, 2016. "The professional service firm (PSF) in a globalised economy: A study of the efficiency of securities firms in an emerging market," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1089-1102.
    4. Ralf Meinhardt & Sebastian Junge & Martin Weiss, 2018. "The organizational environment with its measures, antecedents, and consequences: a review and research agenda," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 195-235, April.
    5. Jean, Ruey-Jer “Bryan” & Kim, Daekwan & Cavusgil, Erin, 2020. "Antecedents and outcomes of digital platform risk for international new ventures’ internationalization," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(1).
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sanchez-Peinado, Esther & Pla-Barber, Jose, 2006. "A multidimensional concept of uncertainty and its influence on the entry mode choice: An empirical analysis in the service sector," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 215-232, June.
    8. James E Clarke & Peter W Liesch, 2017. "Wait-and-see strategy: Risk management in the internationalization process model," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(8), pages 923-940, October.
    9. Thuzar Linn & Broos Maenhout, 2019. "The impact of environmental uncertainty on the performance of the rice supply chain in the Ayeyarwaddy Region, Myanmar," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, December.
    10. Jesper Rangvid, 1997. "Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 497-522, September.
    11. Grimpe, Christoph & Murmann, Martin & Sofka, Wolfgang, 2017. "The organizational design of high-tech startups and product innovation," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-074, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Sebastian Hain, 2011. "Risk perception and risk management in the Middle East market: theory and practice of multinational enterprises in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 819-835, August.
    13. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    14. Brouthers, Keith D. & Brouthers, Lance Eliot & Werner, Steve, 2002. "Industrial sector, perceived environmental uncertainty and entry mode strategy," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 495-507, June.
    15. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    16. Mehmet Demirbag & Martina McGuinness & Hüseyin Altay, 2010. "Perceptions of Institutional Environment and Entry Mode," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 207-240, April.
    17. Lessard, Donald & Lucea, Rafael, 2009. "Embracing risk as a core competence: The case of CEMEX," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 296-305, September.
    18. Demirbag, Mehmet & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Glaister, Keith W., 2009. "Equity-based entry modes of emerging country multinationals: Lessons from Turkey," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 445-462, October.
    19. Ricky Y. K. Chan, 2005. "Does the Natural‐Resource‐Based View of the Firm Apply in an Emerging Economy? A Survey of Foreign Invested Enterprises in China," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 625-672, May.
    20. Serrano Caballero, Enriqueta & Ojo, Marianne, 2019. "Trade Negotiations and Global Relations: Emerging Players and Actors," MPRA Paper 92105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Demirbag, Mehmet & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Glaister, Keith W., 2007. "Factors influencing perceptions of performance: The case of western FDI in an emerging market," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 310-336, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:worbus:v:36:y:2001:i:2:p:128-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620401/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.