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External Monetary Shocks and Monetary Integration: Evidence from the Bulgarian Currency Board

  • Alexandru Minea
  • Christophe Rault

Starting July the 1st 1997, Bulgaria adopted a Currency Board (CB) monetary system. This paper aims at investigating if the adoption of the CB monetary system, which involves the cost of loosing monetary autonomy, has provided a relatively better (with respect to other CEEC) monetary integration of Bulgaria with the European Monetary Union (EMU). Since Bulgarian monetary variables are endogenous under a CB, we focus on the ECB and FED interest rates as the main sources on monetary volatility. First, we find that ECB shocks are more rapidly absorbed and have less significant impact of domestic variables, with respect to other external monetary shocks (FED rate changes). Second, the responses of Bulgarian variables following changes in the ECB interest rate present lower persistence and significance, with respect to what the previous literature emphasized for other CEEC with monetary autonomy. This latter result still holds when accounting for different sources of cross-country heterogeneity outlined in the literature, thus supporting that the adoption of the CB may have worked as a rather good device in terms of integration of Bulgaria into the EMU.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3409.

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Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3409
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  1. Samuel Reynard, 2007. "Maintaining Low Inflation: Money, Interest Rates, and Policy Stance," Working Papers 2007-05, Swiss National Bank.
  2. Alexandru MINEA & Christophe RAULT, 2011. "External Monetary Shocks and Monetary Integration: Evidence from the Bulgarian Currency Board," Working Papers 616, Orleans Economic Laboratorys, University of Orleans.
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  7. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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  10. Nelson, Edward, 2007. "Comment on: Samuel Reynard, "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1472-1479, July.
  11. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1999. "Modified Stationarity Tests with Data-Dependent Model-Selection Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 264-70, April.
  12. Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young, 2003. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1436, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Balázs �gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Central And Eastern Europe: Surveying The Surveyable," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 277-327, 04.
  14. K. Hristov & M. Mihaylov & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2001. "Comparing Currency Board Automatic Mechanism in Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania," Post-Print halshs-00259892, HAL.
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  16. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  17. Magdalena Borys & Roman Horváth & Michal Franta, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 419-443, November.
  18. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
  19. Michael Berlemann & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2004. "Lending of First versus Lending of Last Resort: The Bulgarian Financial Crisis of 1996/19971," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 245-271, June.
  20. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  24. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "'Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy' : by Christopher Sims," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1001-1011, June.
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