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Business Cycle Synchronization Between The Ceec And The Euro‐Area: Evidence From Threshold Seemingly Unrelated Regressions

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  • NEKTARIOS ASLANIDIS

Abstract

This paper re‐examines the issue of business cycle synchronization between the Central and East European countries (CEECs) and the Euro‐area using threshold seemingly unrelated regressions. This new technique is useful in two ways. First, it takes into account contemporaneous linkages among the CEECs as well as between the CEECs and the Euro‐area. Second, it captures business cycle regimes for the CEECs, which are driven by the Euro‐area cycle. The methodology is applied to the three largest CEECs: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The results show that while Hungary has very similar business cycle regimes to the Euro‐area, the Czech Republic and particularly Poland are less synchronized.

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  • Nektarios Aslanidis, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization Between The Ceec And The Euro‐Area: Evidence From Threshold Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 538-555, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:78:y:2010:i:6:p:538-555
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02149.x
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    8. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    9. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2013. "Business cycle convergence or decoupling? Economic adjustment of CESEE countries during the crisis," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence, chapter 10, pages 147-169, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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