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Business Cycle Synchronization Between The Ceec And The Euro-Area: Evidence From Threshold Seemingly Unrelated Regressions

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  • NEKTARIOS ASLANIDIS

Abstract

This paper re-examines the issue of business cycle synchronization between the Central and East European countries (CEECs) and the Euro-area using threshold seemingly unrelated regressions. This new technique is useful in two ways. First, it takes into account contemporaneous linkages among the CEECs as well as between the CEECs and the Euro-area. Second, it captures business cycle regimes for the CEECs, which are driven by the Euro-area cycle. The methodology is applied to the three largest CEECs: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The results show that while Hungary has very similar business cycle regimes to the Euro-area, the Czech Republic and particularly Poland are less synchronized. Copyright © 2010 The Author. The Manchester School © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

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  • Nektarios Aslanidis, 2010. "Business Cycle Synchronization Between The Ceec And The Euro-Area: Evidence From Threshold Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 538-555, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:78:y:2010:i:6:p:538-555
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    Cited by:

    1. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2011. "Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 460-484.
    2. Petrevski, Goran & Exterkate, Peter & Tevdovski, Dragan & Bogoev, Jane, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 632-643.
    3. Carlo Di Giorgio, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization of CEECs with the Euro Area: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 284-300, March.
    4. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    5. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    6. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2013. "Business cycle convergence or decoupling? Economic adjustment of CESEE countries during the crisis," Chapters,in: A New Model for Balanced Growth and Convergence, chapter 10, pages 147-169 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 747-767, November.
    8. Gächter, Simon & Riedl, Alesandra & Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris, 2013. "Business cycle convergence or decoupling? : Economic adjustment in CESEE during the crisis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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