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Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber? the Case of Sweden

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  • Mr. Alun H. Thomas

Abstract

This paper uses a structural vector autoregression representation of the Mundell-Flemming model to analyze the determinants of movements in Sweden’s real exchange rate. It finds that, while (supply and demand) shocks account for over 60 percent of the forecast error variance, comparable to several Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries, demand shocks account for a higher fraction of these real shocks in Sweden than in those core countries. If real demand shocks result from controllable macroeconomic policies, the cost of relinquishing the exchange rate is no higher, and may be lower, for Sweden than for most core EMU countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alun H. Thomas, 1997. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber? the Case of Sweden," IMF Working Papers 1997/176, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:1997/176
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    Cited by:

    1. Kiptui, Moses, 2015. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Kenya: The Relative Importance of Real and Nominal Shocks," MPRA Paper 61515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    3. Lars Calmfors & Asa Johansson, 2006. "Nominal Wage Flexibility, Wage Indexation and Monetary Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 283-308, January.
    4. Lian An & Yoonbai Kim, 2010. "Sources of Exchange Rate Movements in Japan: Is the Exchange Rate a Shock‐Absorber or a Source of Shock?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 265-276, May.
    5. Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2007. "Following the Yellow Brick Road to the Euro?: Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 46-79, November.
    6. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
    7. Ensar Yilmaz, 2012. "The Exchange Rate: A Shock Absorber or Source of Shocks in Turkey?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 175-188, October.
    8. Ilir Miteza & Altin Tanku & Ilir Vika, 2023. "Is the floating exchange rate a shock absorber in Albania? Evidence from SVAR models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1297-1326, April.
    9. Dermot Hodson, 2003. "The Exchange Rate as an Adjustment Mechanism - A Structural VAR Approach to the Case of Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 151-172.
    10. Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 391-410, October.
    11. Audzei, Volha & Brázdik, František, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and their effect on macroeconomic volatility in selected CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 584-596.
    12. Joan Costa Font & Joan Batalla Bejerano, 1998. "Eastern European Countries and the EMU: departure situation and transition strategies," ERSA conference papers ersa98p192, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Kamil Galuscak & Ivan Sutoris & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha & Filip Novotny & Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2017. "Trade and External Relations," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 15, number rb15/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha, January.
    14. Ms. Tao Wang, 2004. "China: Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 2004/018, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Sfia, Mohamed Daly, 2006. "Tunisia: Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 3129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2015. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and its Effect on Macroeconomic Volatility in Selected CEE Countries," Working Papers 2015/07, Czech National Bank.
    17. Bergbom, Lennart, 1998. "Exchange Rate Variability Inside and Outside the EMU," Working Paper Series 1998:26, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    18. Hilde Bjørnland, 2004. "The Role of the Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 23-43, January.
    19. Siwei Goo & Reza Siregar, 2009. "Economic Shocks And Exchange Rate As A Shock Absorber In Indonesia And Thailand," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp72.
    20. Bergvall, Anders, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability: The Case of Sweden 1972-1996," Working Paper Series 2000:25, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    21. Wang, Tao, 2005. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 753-771, December.
    22. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May.
    23. Biswajit Maitra, 2016. "Monetary, Real Shocks And Exchange Rate Variations In India," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 81-103, March.

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