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Trade Synchronisation During Major Economic Crises

  • Susanne Bärenthaler-Sieber

    (WIFO)

  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl

    (WIFO)

  • Christian Glocker

    (WIFO)

In this paper we present a new long-term database on monthly export and import series for 23 economies during 1921-2010 and its first empirical application. Using these data, we analyse the synchronised decline in foreign trade during the recession 2008-09 in a historical perspective. We investigate the following two research questions: First, we compare the degree of synchronisation of trade flows among the past major economic crises. Second, we investigate the synchronisation of the speed of the recovery after these recessions. In order to answer these questions we use both, descriptive statistics (like rolling correlations) and turning-point oriented measures (Bry-Boschan routine, Markov switching model).

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Paper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 449.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 13 May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2013:i:449
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2010. "The Synchronization of GDP Growth in the G7 during U.S. Recessions. Is this Time Different?," FIW Working Paper series 049, FIW.
  3. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2002. "Business Cycles in the Austrian Economy," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 75(7), pages 437-446, July.
  4. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle – Evidence and Causes," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  5. Miguel Almunia & Agustín S. Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2009. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp303, IIIS.
  6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "The great synchronization of international trade collapse," MPRA Paper 39859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  8. Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2011. "On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle," WIFO Working Papers 384, WIFO.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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