IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wiw/wiwwuw/wuwp142.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Great Synchronization of International Trade Collapse

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Antonakakis

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

In this study we provide novel results on the extent of international trade synchronization during periods of trade collapses and US recessions.Based on monthly data for the G7 economies over the period 1961-2011, our results suggest rather idiosyncratic patterns of international trade synchronization during trade collapses and US recessions. During the great recession of 2007-2009, however, international trade experienced the most sudden, severe and globally synchronized collapse.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2012. "The Great Synchronization of International Trade Collapse," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp142, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp142
    Note: PDF Document
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://epub.wu.ac.at/3596/1/wp142.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    3. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
    4. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2012. "The synchronization of GDP growth in the G7 during US recessions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 7-11, January.
    5. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    6. Ann Spehar, 2010. "The Collapse of Global Trade," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 11(3), pages 133-157, July.
    7. Spehar, Ann / AOS, 2010. "The Collapse of Global Trade: What a Tangled Web We Weave," MPRA Paper 23875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. di Mauro, Filippo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Vicard, Vincent & Altomonte, Carlo & Rungi, Armando, 2012. "Global value chains during the great trade collapse: a bullwhip effect?," Working Paper Series 1412, European Central Bank.
    9. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    10. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2011. "Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 308-312, May.
    11. JaeBin Ahn & Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Trade Finance and the Great Trade Collapse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 298-302, May.
    12. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/8088 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Beck & Karen Jackson, 2024. "International trade fluctuations: Global versus regional factors," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 331-358, February.
    2. Gabe de Bondt & Philip Vermeulen, 2021. "Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Nadia Garbellini & Enrico Marelli & Ariel Luis Wirkierman, 2014. "Domestic demand and global production in the Eurozone: A multi-regional input-output assessment of the global crisis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 336-364, May.
    4. Mariarosaria Comunale & Justas Dainauskas & Povilas Lastauskas, 2021. "What explains excess trade persistence? A theory of habits in the supply chains," CAMA Working Papers 2021-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. João Martins, 2022. "Bond Yields Movement Similarities and Synchronization in the G7: A Time–Frequency Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 189-214, July.
    6. Makoto Nirei & Vladyslav Sushko & Julián Caballero, 2016. "Bank Capital Shock Propagation via Syndicated Interconnectedness," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 67-96, January.
    7. Susanne Bärenthaler-Sieber & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Christian Glocker, 2013. "Trade Synchronisation During Major Economic Crises," WIFO Working Papers 449, WIFO.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ariu, Andrea, 2016. "Crisis-proof services: Why trade in services did not suffer during the 2008–2009 collapse," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 138-149.
    2. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560, December.
    3. Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
    4. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2018. "Quality and the Great Trade Collapse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 59-76.
    5. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    6. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    7. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Business cycle synchronization during US recessions since the beginning of the 1870s," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 467-472.
    8. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2017. "One is not enough! An economic history perspective on world trade collapses and deglobalization," ISS Working Papers - General Series 98695, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    9. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Domańska Agnieszka & Serwa Dobromił, 2013. "Vulnerability to foreign macroeconomic shocks – an empirical study in cross-industry perspective. Example of 2008–2009 global crisis in Europe," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 150-173, December.
    11. Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2015. "Financial Shocks, Customer Capital and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-13, McMaster University, revised Sep 2015.
    12. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Trade collapse during the covid-19 crisis and the role of demand composition," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Okubo, Toshihiro & Kimura, Fukunari & Teshima, Nozomu, 2014. "Asian fragmentation in the Global Financial Crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 114-127.
    14. Cristina Constantinescu & Aaditya Mattoo & Michele Ruta, 2020. "The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 121-142.
    15. Ran Jing, 2011. "The Collapse Speed of China's Exports in the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3584, CESifo.
    16. Sanjay Kalra, 2016. "6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income: “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?," IMF Working Papers 2016/139, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2021_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Felipe Benguria & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 509-526, December.
    20. William F. Lincoln & Andrew H. McCallum & Michael Siemer, 2017. "The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Bas, Maria & Fernandes, Ana & Paunov, Caroline, 2024. "How resilient was trade to COVID-19?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade Collapse; Synchronization; Recession; Dynamic Conditional Correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Department of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.wu.ac.at/economics/en .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.