IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/foeste/v13y2013i1p150-173n3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vulnerability to foreign macroeconomic shocks – an empirical study in cross-industry perspective. Example of 2008–2009 global crisis in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Domańska Agnieszka

    (Warsaw School of Economics Institute for International Studi Al. Niepodległości 162, 02-554 Warszawa, Poland)

  • Serwa Dobromił

    (Warsaw School of Economics Institute of Econometric Al. Niepodległości 162, 02-554 Warszawa, Poland)

Abstract

The paper analyses the factors explaining the vulnerability of the European countries’ industries to foreign trade and production downturn in the years 2008-2009 and attempts to identify branches and industries (or their features significant in this context) that most greatly contributed to the last crisis transmission in Europe, mainly through the slump in their trade. Among those factors we took into particular consideration: the level of specialization versus diversification of the export basket and production, trade openness in the cross-country and cross-industry perspective, the intra-industry/inter-industry structure of trade and the financial openness.

Suggested Citation

  • Domańska Agnieszka & Serwa Dobromił, 2013. "Vulnerability to foreign macroeconomic shocks – an empirical study in cross-industry perspective. Example of 2008–2009 global crisis in Europe," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 150-173, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:foeste:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:150-173:n:3
    DOI: 10.2478/foli-2013-0003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/foli-2013-0003
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/foli-2013-0003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Douglas A. Irwin, 2000. "How Did the United States Become a Net Exporter of Manufactured Goods?," NBER Working Papers 7638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    3. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia, 2009. "Vertical specialization across the world: A relative measure," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 267-280, December.
    4. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
    5. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Economic Convergence and Economic Policies," NBER Working Papers 5039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196.
    7. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    8. Venables, Anthony J. & Maloney, William & Kokko, Ari & Bravo Ortega, Claudio & Lederman, Daniel & Rigobón, Roberto & De Gregorio, José & Czelusta, Jesse & Jayasuriya, Shamila A. & Blomström, Magnus & , 2007. "Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 350, March.
    9. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    10. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    11. Fahim Al-Marhubi, 2000. "Export diversification and growth: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 559-562.
    12. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    13. Bejan, Maria, 2006. "Trade Openness and Output Volatility," MPRA Paper 2759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Contagious Currency Crises: Channels of Conveyance," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 29-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jansen, Marion & Piermartini, Roberta & Lennon, Carolina, 2009. "Exposure to External Country Specific Shocks and Income Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Klinger, Bailey & Lederman, Daniel, 2006. "Diversification, innovation, and imitation inside the Global Technological Frontier," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3872, The World Bank.
    17. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Tropics, germs, and crops: how endowments influence economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-39, January.
    18. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    19. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    20. Hansen, Christian B., 2007. "Generalized least squares inference in panel and multilevel models with serial correlation and fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 670-694, October.
    21. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    22. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_99-1, March.
    23. Eduardo Fern·ndez-Arias & Peter Montiel, 2001. "Reform and Growth in Latin America: All Pain, No Gain?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-5.
    24. Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2005. "Does openness imply greater exposure ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3733, The World Bank.
    25. Ricardo Caballero & Kevin Cowan, 2006. "Financial Integration Without the Volatility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 387, Central Bank of Chile.
    26. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    27. Irwin, Douglas A. & Tervio, Marko, 2002. "Does trade raise income?: Evidence from the twentieth century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-18, October.
    28. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    29. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    30. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    31. Easterly, William & Loayza, Norman & Montiel, Peter, 1997. "Has Latin America's post-reform growth been disappointing?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 287-311, November.
    32. Hutchison, Michael M & Noy, Ilan, 2005. "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 725-752, August.
    33. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December.
    34. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
    35. Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2005. "Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1499-1542, Elsevier.
    36. Agosin, Manuel R., 2008. "Export diversification and growth in emerging economies," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    37. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
    38. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 81-94, March.
    39. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    40. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1999. "Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386737, December.
    41. David M. G. Newbery & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1984. "Pareto Inferior Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(1), pages 1-12.
    42. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Dierk Herzer & Nowak-Lehnmann Felicitas, 2006. "What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1825-1838.
    44. Dan Ben-David, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 653-679.
    45. Vivek Arora & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2005. "How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 24-40, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    2. Dungey, Mardi & Khan, Faisal & Raghavan, Mala, 2018. "International trade and the transmission of shocks: The case of ASEAN-4 and NIE-4 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 109-121.
    3. Felipe Starosta de Waldemar, 2010. "How costly is rent-seeking to diversification: an empirical approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    4. Heiko Hesse, 2008. "Export Diversification and Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28040, December.
    5. Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2005. "Does openness imply greater exposure ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3733, The World Bank.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 448-467.
    7. Aye Mengistu, Alemu, 2009. "Determinants of Vertical and Horizontal Export Diversification: Evidences from Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 107-107, August.
    8. César Calderón & Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "External Conditions and Growth Performance," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Ricardo Caballero & César Calderón & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Sc (ed.),External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies, edition 1, volume 10, chapter 3, pages 041-070, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Andres Kuusk & Tiiu Paas, 2010. "Contagion Of Financial Crises With Special Emphasis On Cee Economies: A Metaanalysis," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 66, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    10. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 295-326, December.
    11. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    12. Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong & Somprawin Manprasert, 2015. "Trade Diversification and Crisis Transmission: A Case Study of Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 385-408, December.
    13. Dalila NICET- CHENAF (GREThA-GRES) & Eric ROUGIER (GREThA-GRES), 2008. "Recent exports matter: export discoveries, FDI and Growth, an empirical assessment for MENA countries," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2008-17, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    14. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    15. Stumpner, Sebastian, 2019. "Trade and the geographic spread of the great recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 169-180.
    16. Kurz, Christopher & Senses, Mine Z., 2016. "Importing, exporting, and firm-level employment volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-175.
    17. Marek Lubiński, 2007. "International Business Cycle," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 1(2), June.
    18. Roberto Basile & Aleksandra Parteka & Rosanna Pittiglio, 2018. "Export diversification and economic development: A dynamic spatial data analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 634-650, August.
    19. Bédhat Jean-Marc Atsebi & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2019. "The trade costs of financial crises," CERDI Working papers halshs-01990335, HAL.
    20. A. M. M. Shahiduzzaman Quoreshi & Trudy-Ann Stone, 2019. "Do Global Value Chains Make Firms More Vulnerable to Trade Shocks?—Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Sweden," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:foeste:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:150-173:n:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.