IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v113y2019icp77-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do (all) sectoral shocks lead to aggregate volatility? Empirics from a production network perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Joya, Omar
  • Rougier, Eric

Abstract

Productive diversification has long been acknowledged as a volatility-reducing strategy. Yet, recent theoretical contributions have shown that, in strongly diversified economies, idiosyncratic shocks could translate into aggregate volatility via the network of inter-industry linkages. By exploiting exogenous cross-country-sector variations in demand shocks during the 2008 Great Recession, we provide empirical evidence that the network properties of a sector affected by an individual shock determine its propensity to transmit volatility to the rest of the economy. More precisely, shocks to sectors that are located in denser parts of a production network fade out over a large number of alternative paths of propagation due to substitution effects, whereas shocks to sectors that are more influential within the network generate aggregate fluctuations through contagion effects. We also find that the impact of sectoral shocks on aggregate volatility (1) is not conditional on sector-level differences in trade intensity, and (2) is larger for developing countries because they tend to have more isolated influential sectors and larger structural holes in their production network. Our results thus help consolidate the two opposite views in the literature on the impact of productive diversification on aggregate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Joya, Omar & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "Do (all) sectoral shocks lead to aggregate volatility? Empirics from a production network perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 77-107.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:113:y:2019:i:c:p:77-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001429211930008X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Cuberes & Michał Jerzmanowski, 2009. "Democracy, Diversification and Growth Reversals," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(540), pages 1270-1302, October.
    2. Vasco Carvalho, 2007. "Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade," Economics Working Papers 1206, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2010.
    3. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    4. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2011. "Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 308-312, May.
    5. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    6. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    7. Nguyen,Ha Minh, 2015. "Demand-driven propagation : evidence from the great recession," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7456, The World Bank.
    8. repec:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:9:p:2714-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2013. "Technological Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 378-414, February.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13581 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    12. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2016. "Input--output linkages and the propagation of domestic productivity shocks: assessing alternative theories with stochastic simulation," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 38-54, March.
    13. Paul Beaudry & David A. Green & Ben M. Sand, 2018. "In Search of Labor Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2714-2757, September.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, February.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    16. Richard S. Grossman & Christopher M. Meissner, 2010. "International aspects of the Great Depression and the crisis of 2007: similarities, differences, and lessons," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 318-338, Autumn.
    17. Alexei P Kireyev & Andrei Leonidov, 2015. "Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 15/149, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Belke, Ansgar & Dubova, Irina, 2018. "International spillovers in global asset markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 3-17.
    19. Cross, Rod, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Discontinuous Adjustment: Selective Memory of Non-dominated Extrema," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 212-221, May.
    20. Jean Imbs & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Stages of Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 63-86, March.
    21. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011. "Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
    22. Richard Wood, 2011. "Construction, Stability And Predictability Of An Input-Output Time-Series For Australia," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 175-211.
    23. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    24. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
    25. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    26. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    27. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    28. Martha G. Alatriste Contreras & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2014. "Propagation of economic shocks in input-output networks: A cross-country analysis," Post-Print hal-01474258, HAL.
    29. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    30. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    31. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    32. Chauvet, Lisa & Ehrhart, Hélène, 2018. "Aid and growth: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 461-477.
    33. Mona Haddad & Jamus Jerome Lim & Cosimo Pancaro & Christian Saborowski, 2013. "Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 765-790, May.
    34. Erik Dietzenbacher & Alex Hoen, 2006. "Coefficient stability and predictability in input-output models: a comparative analysis for the Netherlands," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 671-680.
    35. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2016. "Contagion in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    36. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    37. repec:eee:wdevel:v:102:y:2018:i:c:p:90-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. repec:wsi:acsxxx:v:14:y:2011:i:05:n:s0219525911003335 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Shea, John S, 2002. "Complementarities and Comovements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 412-433, May.
    40. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    41. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    42. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    43. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, May.
    44. Nadia Garbellini & Enrico Marelli & Ariel Luis Wirkierman, 2014. "Domestic demand and global production in the Eurozone: A multi-regional input-output assessment of the global crisis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 336-364, May.
    45. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    46. Joya, Omar, 2015. "Growth and volatility in resource-rich countries: Does diversification help?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-55.
    47. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 779-831, September.
    48. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    49. Martin Srholec, 2007. "High-Tech Exports from Developing Countries: A Symptom of Technology Spurts or Statistical Illusion?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 227-255, July.
    50. Nadezhda Malysheva & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2011. "Sectoral disturbances and aggregate economic activity," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 153-173.
    51. Richard Baldwin, 2011. "Trade And Industrialisation After Globalisation's 2nd Unbundling: How Building And Joining A Supply Chain Are Different And Why It Matters," NBER Working Papers 17716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    53. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    54. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, May.
    55. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
    56. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    57. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    58. Michael Horvath, 1998. "Cyclicality and Sectoral Linkages: Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 781-808, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cahen-Fourot, Louison & Campiglio, Emanuele & Dawkins, Elena & Godin, Antoine & Kemp-Benedict, Eric, 2019. "Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation," Ecological Economic Papers 6854, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Diversification; Production network; Input–output structure; Sectoral shock; 2008 global crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:113:y:2019:i:c:p:77-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.