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Democracy, Diversification, and Growth Reversals

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  • Cuberes, David
  • Jerzmanowski, Michal

Abstract

There is much evidence that less democratic countries experience more high-frequency growth volatility. In this paper we report a similar finding about volatility in the medium term: we find evidence that reversals of trend-growth are sharper and more frequent in non-democracies. Motivated by this evidence, we construct a model in which non-democracies have high barriers of entry for new firms. This leads to less sectoral diversification and so, in an uncertain environment, to larger growth swings in less democratic countries. We present empirical evidence that confirms the positive relation between democracy and industrial diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuberes, David & Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2008. "Democracy, Diversification, and Growth Reversals," MPRA Paper 11646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11646
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    Cited by:

    1. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick A. Pintus, 2012. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain : the Conditional Welfare Gains from International Financial Integration," Documents de recherche 12-14, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    2. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    3. Felipe Starosta de Waldemar, 2010. "How costly is rent-seeking to diversification : an empirical approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00461486, HAL.
    4. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    5. Madeeha Gohar Qureshi & Eatzaz Ahmed, 2012. "The Inter-linkages between Democracy and Per Capita GDP Growth: A Cross Country Analysis," PIDE-Working Papers 2012:85, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    6. repec:pal:compes:v:59:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41294-017-0021-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gnidchenko, Andrey, 2011. "Моделирование Технологических И Институциональных Эффектов В Макроэкономическом Прогнозировании
      [Technological and Institutional Effects Modeling in Macroeconomic Forecasting]
      ," MPRA Paper 35484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2011.
    8. Fabbri, Giorgio, 2017. "International borrowing without commitment and informational lags: Choice under uncertainty," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 103-114.
    9. Lorenzo Burlon, 2017. "Public expenditure distribution, voting, and growth," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(4), pages 789-810, August.
    10. Adam, Antonis & Delis, Manthos D. & Kammas, Pantelis, 2011. "Are democratic governments more efficient?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 75-86, March.
    11. Raouf Boucekkine & Patrick Pintus, 2012. "History’s a curse: leapfrogging, growth breaks and growth reversals under international borrowing without commitment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 27-47, March.
    12. Sam Hak Kan Tang & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "The Deep Historical Roots of Macroeconomic Volatility," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(299), pages 568-589, December.
    13. Wiig, Arne & Kolstad, Ivar, 2012. "If diversification is good, why don't countries diversify more? The political economy of diversification in resource-rich countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 196-203.
    14. Makhlouf, Yousef & Kellard, Neil M. & Vinogradov, Dmitri, 2017. "Child mortality, commodity price volatility and the resource curse," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 144-156.
    15. Mohamed Belhaj & Nataliya Klimenko, 2012. "Optimal Preventive Bank Supervision Combining Random Audits and Continuous Intervention," AMSE Working Papers 1201, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
    16. Ivar Kolstad & Arne Wiig, 2014. "Diversification and democracy," CMI Working Papers 9, CMI (Chr. Michelsen Institute), Bergen, Norway.
    17. Andrew Williams, 2014. "The effect of transparency on output volatility," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 101-129, May.
    18. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick Pintus, 2012. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Conditional Welfare Gains from International Financial Integration The Conditional Welfare Gains from International Financial Integration," AMSE Working Papers 1202, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 27 Jun 2016.
    19. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2016. "Going Up and Down: Rethinking the Empirics of Growth in the Developing and Newly Industrialized World," LEM Papers Series 2016/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Eric Rougier & Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka, 2017. "What difference does it make (when a middle-income country is caught in the trap)? An evidence-based survey analysis of the determinants of Middle-Income Traps," Cahiers du GREThA 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
    21. Seim, Anna Larsson & Parente, Stephen L., 2013. "Democracy as a middle ground: A unified theory of development and political regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 35-56.

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    Keywords

    medium term growth; growth volatility; democracy; diversification;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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