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The great synchronization of international trade collapse

  • Antonakakis, Nikolaos

In this paper we examine the extent of international trade synchronization during periods of international trade collapses and US recessions. Using dynamic correlations based on monthly trade data for the G7 economies over the period 1961–2011, our results suggest rather idiosyncratic patterns of international trade synchronization during collapses of international trade and US recessions. During the great recession of 2007–2009, however, international trade experienced the most sudden, severe and globally synchronized collapse.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 117 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 608-614

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:3:p:608-614
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2009. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," Working Papers 592, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  2. Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Imbs, Jean, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," CEPR Discussion Papers 7973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Araújo, Sónia & Oliveira Martins, Joaquim, 2011. "The Great Synchronisation : tracking the trade collapse with high-frequency data," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/8088, Paris Dauphine University.
  5. Altomonte, C. & Di Mauro, F. & Ottaviano, G. & Rungi, A. & Vicard, V., 2012. "Global Value Chains during the Great Trade Collapse: A Bullwhip Effect?," Working papers 364, Banque de France.
  6. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2011. "Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 308-12, May.
  7. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2012. "The synchronization of GDP growth in the G7 during US recessions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 7-11, January.
  8. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  9. Ann Spehar, 2010. "The Collapse of Global Trade," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 11(3), pages 133-157, July.
  10. Calista Cheung & Stéphanie Guichard, 2009. "Understanding the World Trade Collapse," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 729, OECD Publishing.
  11. JaeBin Ahn & Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Trade Finance and the Great Trade Collapse," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 298-302, May.
  12. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
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