IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bog/wpaper/154.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring return and volatility spillovers in euro area financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios P. Louzis

    () (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This study examines the return (price) and volatility spillovers among the money, stock, foreign exchange and bond markets of the euro area, utilizing the forecast-error variance decomposition framework of a generalized VAR model proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) [Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 57-66]. Our empirical results, based on a data set covering a twelve-year period (2000-2012), suggest a high level of total return and volatility spillover effects throughout the sample, indicating that, on average, more than the 50% of the forecast-error variance of the respective VAR model is explained by spillover effects. Moreover, the stock market is identified as the main transmitter of both return and volatility spillovers even during the current sovereign debt crisis. With the exception of the period 2011-2012, bonds of the periphery countries under financial support mechanisms are receivers of return spillovers, whereas, they transmit volatility spillovers to other markets diachronically. Finally, we identify the key role of money market in volatility transmission in the euro area during the outbreak of the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2013. "Measuring return and volatility spillovers in euro area financial markets," Working Papers 154, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper2013154.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo & Margherita Velucchi, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in East Asian Financial Markets: A Mem-Based Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 222-223, February.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Exchange return co-movements and volatility spillovers before and after the introduction of euro," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1091-1109.
    3. Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
    4. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility-Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    6. FrancisX. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    8. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," IREA Working Papers 201219, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2012.
    9. Baur, Dirk G. & Lucey, Brian M., 2009. "Flights and contagion--An empirical analysis of stock-bond correlations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 339-352, December.
    10. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    11. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2012. "A methodology for constructing a financial systemic stress index: An application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1228-1241.
    12. Skintzi, Vasiliki D. & Refenes, Apostolos N., 2006. "Volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in European bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-40, February.
    13. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    14. Kim, Suk-Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Evolution of international stock and bond market integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1507-1534, May.
    15. In, Francis, 2007. "Volatility spillovers across international swap markets: The US, Japan, and the UK," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 329-341, April.
    16. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fengler, Matthias R. & Gisler, Katja I.M., 2015. "A variance spillover analysis without covariances: What do we miss?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 174-195.
    2. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:577-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fengler, Matthias R. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2015. "Measuring spot variance spillovers when (co)variances are time-varying - the case of multivariate GARCH models," MPRA Paper 72197, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2016.
    4. Bayraci, Selcuk & Demiralay, Sercan, 2013. "Conditional Autoregregressive Range (CARR) Based Volatility Spillover Index For the Eurozone Markets," MPRA Paper 51909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dimitrios Louzis, 2015. "Measuring spillover effects in Euro area financial markets: a disaggregate approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1367-1400, December.
    6. Liow, Kim Hiang, 2015. "Volatility spillover dynamics and relationship across G7 financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 328-365.
    7. Liow, Kim Hiang & Newell, Graeme, 2016. "Real estate global beta and spillovers: An international study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 297-313.
    8. repec:eee:pacfin:v:43:y:2017:i:c:p:124-150 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:368-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers across Global Asset Classes: Evidence from Time and Frequency Domains," Working Papers 201780, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset markets; Spillovers; Vector Autoregressive; Euro area; Financial Crisis.;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/boggvgr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.