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The euro area's common default risk: Evidence on the Commission's impact on European fiscal affairs

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  • Roman Goldbach
  • Christian Fahrholz

Abstract

Sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area hinges upon the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). We analyse whether political events that worsen the SGP's credibility result in a shared default risk premium for all euro members, therefore leading to a joint deterioration of creditworthiness. We especially examine the decisions and statements of the Commission and the Council of Economic and Finance Ministers. Analysing daily data through the 1999–2005 period with an ARMA-GARCH model, we find the Commission plays a decisive role in affecting investor evaluations, where its credibility-strengthening decisions decrease volatility and statements signalling a weakening of fiscal credibility spark uncertainty on financial markets. Our results stress the importance of creating credible fiscal institutions that preserve sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area.

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  • Roman Goldbach & Christian Fahrholz, 2011. "The euro area's common default risk: Evidence on the Commission's impact on European fiscal affairs," European Union Politics, , vol. 12(4), pages 507-528, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:12:y:2011:i:4:p:507-528
    DOI: 10.1177/1465116511413950
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    3. Ngai, Victor, 2012. "Stability and Growth Pact and Fiscal Discipline in the Eurozone," Working Papers 12-10, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    4. Falagiarda, Matteo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2015. "The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: A comparative analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 288-304.
    5. Matthias Bauer & Martin Zenker, 2012. "Minor Nuisance Around Foreign Exchange Markets - Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact Debate," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-32, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Sanjeev Gupta & João T Jalles & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Michela Schena, 2018. "Planned fiscal adjustments: Do governments fulfil their commitments?," European Union Politics, , vol. 19(3), pages 383-407, September.
    7. Luechinger, Simon & Moser, Christoph, 2020. "The European Commission and the revolving door," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Patroklos Patsoulis & Marios Psychalis & Georgios A. Deirmentzoglou, 2022. "Stability and Growth Pact: Too Young to Die, Too Old to Rock ‘n’ Roll," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Manuele Citi, 2015. "European Union budget politics: Explaining stability and change in spending allocations," European Union Politics, , vol. 16(2), pages 260-280, June.
    10. Jørgen Bølstad & Christoph Elhardt, 2015. "To bail out or not to bail out? Crisis politics, credibility, and default risk in the Eurozone," European Union Politics, , vol. 16(3), pages 325-346, September.
    11. Matthias Bauer, 2013. "Political Aversion To a Multilateral Fiscal Rule: The Dynamic Commitment Problem in European Fiscal Governance," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 44-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    12. M. Falagiarda & W. D. Gregori, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Announcements of Italian Governments and Spread Reaction during the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Working Papers wp961, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Matthias Bauer & Martin Zenker, 2012. "Market Discipline Under A Politicised Multilateral Fiscal Rule - Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact Debate," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-35, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

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