IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/eeupol/v16y2015i3p325-346.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

To bail out or not to bail out? Crisis politics, credibility, and default risk in the Eurozone

Author

Listed:
  • Jørgen Bølstad
  • Christoph Elhardt

Abstract

We examine the impact of signals regarding the Eurozone’s bail-out commitment on government bond spreads in the Eurozone’s periphery, analysing the effect of positive, negative and mixed statements and decisions by the EU, the ECB and Germany. We construct a dataset of relevant events, and estimate their effects using distributed lag models, providing a number of robustness checks. Our main argument is that investors react to statements from credible actors, but largely ignore statements from less-credible actors, awaiting actual decisions. Accordingly, positive statements from the ECB have clear effects, while those from Germany and the EU do not. Furthermore, ECB decisions appear to be anticipated and thus have no short-term effects, while we find clear effects of positive decisions by Germany and the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Jørgen Bølstad & Christoph Elhardt, 2015. "To bail out or not to bail out? Crisis politics, credibility, and default risk in the Eurozone," European Union Politics, , vol. 16(3), pages 325-346, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:16:y:2015:i:3:p:325-346
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eup.sagepub.com/content/16/3/325.abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bera, Anil K. & Sosa-Escudero, Walter & Yoon, Mann, 2001. "Tests for the error component model in the presence of local misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 1-23, March.
    2. D’Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2014. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – The times, they are a-changin," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 155-176.
    3. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    4. Bechtel, Michael M. & Schneider, Gerald, 2010. "Eliciting Substance from ‘Hot Air’: Financial Market Responses to EU Summit Decisions on European Defense," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(02), pages 199-223, April.
    5. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    6. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2015. "Comparison of methods for constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 782-798.
    7. Roman Goldbach & Christian Fahrholz, 2011. "The euro area's common default risk: Evidence on the Commission's impact on European fiscal affairs," European Union Politics, , vol. 12(4), pages 507-528, December.
    8. de Haan, Leo & Hessel, Jeroen & van den End, Jan Willem, 2014. "Are European sovereign bonds fairly priced? The role of modelling uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 239-267.
    9. Gade, Thomas & Salines, Marion & Glöckler, Gabriel & Strodthoff, Steffen, 2013. "“Loose lips sinking markets?": the impact of political communication on sovereign bond spreads," Occasional Paper Series 150, European Central Bank.
    10. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    11. Iain McMenamin & Michael Breen & Juan Muñoz-Portillo, 2015. "Austerity and credibility in the Eurozone," European Union Politics, , vol. 16(1), pages 45-66, March.
    12. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    13. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "The politics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 291-317.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    15. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    16. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    17. William E. Paterson, 2011. "The Reluctant Hegemon? Germany Moves Centre Stage in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(Supplemen), pages 57-75, September.
    18. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2012. "Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Stability in the Eurozone," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(6), pages 866-880, November.
    19. Badaoui, Saad & Cathcart, Lara & El-Jahel, Lina, 2013. "Do sovereign credit default swaps represent a clean measure of sovereign default risk? A factor model approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2392-2407.
    20. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    21. Philipp Mohl & David Sondermann, 2013. "Has political communication during the crisis impacted sovereign bond spreads in the euro area?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 48-61, January.
    22. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
    23. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    24. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2013. "Fiscal space and sovereign risk pricing in a currency union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-163.
    25. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    26. Dieter Smeets & Marco Zimmermann, 2013. "Did the EU Summits Succeed in Convincing the Markets during the Recent Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1158-1177, November.
    27. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:16:y:2015:i:3:p:325-346. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.