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The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: A comparative analysis

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  • Falagiarda, Matteo
  • Gregori, Wildmer Daniel

Abstract

This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the long-term sovereign bond spread of Italy relative to Germany. After collecting data on relevant fiscal policy announcements, we perform an econometric comparative analysis between the three administrations that followed one another during the period 2009–2013. The results indicate that only fiscal policy announcements made by members of Monti's cabinet had a significant impact on the Italian spread. We argue that these findings may be partly explained by a credibility gap between Monti's technocratic administration and Berlusconi's and Letta's governments.

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  • Falagiarda, Matteo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2015. "The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: A comparative analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 288-304.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:39:y:2015:i:c:p:288-304
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.07.002
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    14. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
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    Cited by:

    1. Füss, Roland & Grabellus, Markus & Mager, Ferdinand & Stein, Michael, 2018. "Something in the air: Information density, news surprises, and price jumps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 50-75.
    2. Falagiarda, Matteo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2015. "The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: A comparative analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 288-304.
    3. Wolfinger, Julia & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Feld, Lars P. & Thomas, Tobias, 2018. "57 Channels (And Nothin On): Does TV-News on the Eurozone affect Government Bond Yield Spreads?," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181610, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Gibran Watfe, 2015. "The Impact of the ECB's Asset Purchase Programmes on Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Euro Area," Bruges European Economic Research Papers 35, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    5. Hirsch, Patrick & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Feld, Lars P. & Thomas, Tobias, 2020. ""Whatever it takes!": How tonality of TV-news affects government bond yield spreads during crises," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 20/09, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    6. Dybowski, T.P. & Adämmer, P., 2018. "The economic effects of U.S. presidential tax communication: Evidence from a correlated topic model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 511-525.
    7. Carlos Mauro Cárdenas Cardona & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2020. "La comunicación fiscal y sus efectos sobre los retornos de los títulos públicos: una aproximación empírica para el caso colombiano," Ensayos de Economía 018309, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    8. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Wildmer Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Has the Grexit news spilled over into euro area financial markets? The role of domestic political leaders, supranational executives and institutions," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 134, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    9. Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Sacchi, Agnese, 2019. "Has the Grexit news affected euro area financial markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-84.
    10. Jasper de Jong, 2018. "The effect of fiscal announcements on interest spreads: Evidence from the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 584, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy announcements; Political communication; Sovereign debt crisis; Interest rate spread; GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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