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Has political communication during the crisis impacted sovereign bond spreads in the euro area?

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  • Philipp Mohl
  • David Sondermann

Abstract

Using thousands of news agencies reports from May 2010 to June 2011, we find that statements about restructuring, bailout and the involvement of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) have impacted bond spreads of countries in the periphery vis-à-vis Germany. Our findings also indicate that the more different euro area governments issued statements at the same time, the more bond spreads have increased. Finally, statements from politicians from AAA-rated countries seemed to have a particularly strong impact on spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Mohl & David Sondermann, 2013. "Has political communication during the crisis impacted sovereign bond spreads in the euro area?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 48-61, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:48-61
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.674201
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ehrmann, Michael & Sondermann, David, 2009. "The reception of public signals in financial markets - what if central bank communication becomes stale?," Working Paper Series 1077, European Central Bank.
    2. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    3. Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jan-Christoph Ruelke, 2011. "Fiscal variables and bond spreads - evidence from Eastern European countries and Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(17), pages 1291-1307.
    4. Sazedj, Sharmin & Tavares, José, 2011. "Hope, Change, and Financial Markets: Can Obama's Words Drive the Market?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ehrmann, Michael & Osbat, Chiara & Stráský, Jan & Uusküla, Lenno, 2014. "The euro exchange rate during the European sovereign debt crisis – Dancing to its own tune?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 319-339.
    2. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
    3. Panagiotis Petrakis & Emmanuel Papadakis & Nikoleta Daniilopoulou, 2012. "Public Statements on Sovereign Yield Spreads:The Greek Case," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 6(2), pages 5-16, December.
    4. Graham Bird & Wenti Du & Thomas Willett, 2017. "Behavioral Finance and Efficient Markets: What does the Euro Crisis Tell us?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 273-295, April.
    5. Valerio Filoso, Valerio & Panico, Carlo & Papagni, Erasmo & Francesco, Purificato & Vázquez Suarez, Marta, 2016. "Causes and timing of the European debt crisis: An econometric evaluation," MPRA Paper 75847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper, 2016. "Domestic and Cross-Border Auction Cycle Effects of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 11122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Joanna Dreger, 2012. "Why Is Sovereign Debt Restructuring a Challenge? The Case of Greece," Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 24, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    8. repec:eee:intfin:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:50-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andreas Haupenthal & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "Grexit news and stock returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(39), pages 3891-3898, August.
    10. Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2014. "The impact of news and the SMP on realized (co)variances in the eurozone sovereign debt market," Working Paper Series 1629, European Central Bank.
    11. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Newswire messages and sovereign credit ratings: Evidence from European countries under austerity reform programmes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 54-62.
    12. Gade, Thomas & Salines, Marion & Glöckler, Gabriel & Strodthoff, Steffen, 2013. "“Loose lips sinking markets?": the impact of political communication on sovereign bond spreads," Occasional Paper Series 150, European Central Bank.
    13. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2018. "Bid-to-cover and yield changes around public debt auctions in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 118-134.
    14. Jørgen Bølstad & Christoph Elhardt, 2015. "To bail out or not to bail out? Crisis politics, credibility, and default risk in the Eurozone," European Union Politics, , vol. 16(3), pages 325-346, September.
    15. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Forecasting Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) spreads with newswire messages: Evidence from European countries under financial distress," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 92-94.
    16. Faia, Ester, 2017. "Sovereign risk, bank funding and investors’ pessimism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 79-96.
    17. Falagiarda, Matteo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2015. "The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: A comparative analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 288-304.
    18. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Wildmer Agnese Sacchi, 2016. "Has the Grexit news spilled over into euro area financial markets? The role of domestic political leaders, supranational executives and institutions," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 134, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    19. Wolfinger, Julia & Köhler, Ekkehard, 2017. "The Draghi-Put: When unexpected words on joint liability speak louder than actions," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168265, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Fuess, Roland & Grabellus, Markus & Mager, Ferdinand & Stein, Michael, 2015. "Something in the Air: Information Density, News Surprises, and Price Jumps," Working Papers on Finance 1517, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    21. M. Falagiarda & W. D. Gregori, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Announcements of Italian Governments and Spread Reaction during the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Working Papers wp961, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    22. Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Giuliodori, Massimo & Widijanto, Daniel, 2012. "Spread the News: How the Crisis Affected the Impact of News on the European Sovereign Bond Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 9043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. repec:eee:jimfin:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:14-31 is not listed on IDEAS

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