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Beyond Borders: Assessing the Influence of Geopolitical Tensions on Sovereign Risk Dynamics

Author

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  • António Afonso
  • José Alves
  • Sofia Monteiro

Abstract

We assess the impact of geopolitical risk and world uncertainty on the sovereign debt risk of 26 European Economies during the period 1984-2022, through the implementation of OLS-Fixed Effects regressions and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). We find that geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty in border countries contribute to the rise of European country’s sovereign risk as measured by 5- and 10-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and bond returns. Moreover, this interconnection is more pronounced during turbulent times such as the subprime crisis. Lastly, we found that geopolitical tensions in other country’ groups such as South America and Asia have a significant impact on the government risks of European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2023. "Beyond Borders: Assessing the Influence of Geopolitical Tensions on Sovereign Risk Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10801, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10801
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    geopolitical risk; world uncertainty; political tensions; sovereign risk; European economy; GMM; subprime crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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