IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v66y2023ics0275531923001745.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global geopolitical risk and inflation spillovers across European and North American economies

Author

Listed:
  • Bouri, Elie
  • Gabauer, David
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Kinateder, Harald

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the spillovers across monthly inflation rates (measured by the CPI) of advanced North American and European economies. Using data covering the period from May 1963 to November 2022 and a time-varying spillover approach, we show that the total spillover index across the inflation rates spiked during the Russo-Ukrainian war, exceeding its previous peak shown during the 1970s energy crisis. Notably, we apply a quantile-on-quantile regression and reveal that changes in the total spillover index are positively associated with lagged changes in the global geopolitical risk (GPR) index. More specifically, changes in the GPR index are positively impacting all future changes in the inflation spillover index, whereas the GPR Acts index is only positively associated with large future changes in the inflation spillover index. Given that rising levels of inflation are posing risks to the financial system and economic growth, these findings should matter to the central banks and policymakers in advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouri, Elie & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Kinateder, Harald, 2023. "Global geopolitical risk and inflation spillovers across European and North American economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923001745
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531923001745
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102048?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aharon, David Y. & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "Infection, invasion, and inflation: Recent lessons," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz & Haslifah M. Hasim & Mohamed M. Elheddad, 2019. "Analysing the spillover of inflation in selected Euro-area countries," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(3), pages 551-577, September.
    3. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    4. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    5. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2013. "Large time-varying parameter VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 185-198.
    6. Bouri, Elie & Nekhili, Ramzi & Kinateder, Harald & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2023. "Expected inflation and U.S. stock sector indices: A dynamic time-scale tale from inflationary and deflationary crisis periods," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    7. Jordan, Thomas J., 2016. "The impact of international spillovers on Swiss inflation and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 262-265.
    8. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    9. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    10. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
    13. Hudson, Robert & Urquhart, Andrew, 2022. "Naval disasters, world war two and the British stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Batten, Jonathan & Gozgor, Giray & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Nanaeva, Zhamal, 2024. "Metaverse and financial markets: A quantile-time-frequency connectedness analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    2. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2025. "Echoes of instability: how geopolitical risks shape government debt holdings," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-28, June.
    3. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2025. "US sectors and geopolitical risk: The investor's perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Aljohani, Bader M. & Fadul, Abubaker & Asiri, Maram S. & Alkhathami, Abdulrahman D. & Hasan, Fakhrul, 2024. "Volatility transmission in the property market during two inflationary periods: The 2008–2009 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    6. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Anwar, Rija, 2024. "Precious metals and currency markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s inflationary periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    7. Korzeb, Zbigniew & Niedziółka, Paweł & Nistor, Simona, 2023. "Sovereign creditworthiness and bank foreign ownership. An empirical investigation of the European banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Qin, Yun & Zhang, Zitao, 2025. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s producer price index: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Safiullah, Md & Soytas, Ugur, 2025. "Does geopolitical risk increase carbon emissions and public health risk?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Wang, Anqi & Ding, Shusheng & Cui, Tianxiang, 2025. "Green bond market stability and Russia Ukraine conflict: The role of green inclusive finance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Bajra, Ujkan Q. & Aliu, Florin & Prenaj, Vlora, 2025. "Connectivity of green financial assets under geopolitical risks and market-implied volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Aharon, David Y. & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Nor, Safwan Mohd, 2023. "Cross-country study of the linkages between COVID-19, oil prices, and inflation in the G7 countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elie Bouri & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Harald Kinateder, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Inflation Spillovers across European and North American Economies," Working Papers 202304, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Assaf, Rima & Chaibi, Anis & Makram, Beljid, 2024. "The nexus between mineral, renewable commodities, and regional stock sectors during health and military crises," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Balash, Vladimir & Faizliev, Alexey, 2024. "Volatility spillovers across Russian oil and gas sector. Evidence of the impact of global markets and extraordinary events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Pham, Son Duy & Li, Xiao-Ming & Do, Hung Xuan, 2024. "Does the U.S. export inflation? Evidence from the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and EAGLEs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2020. "From CIP-deviations to a market for risk premia: A dynamic investigation of cross-currency basis swaps," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Anwar, Rija, 2024. "Precious metals and currency markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s inflationary periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    8. Balash, V. & Faizliev, A., 2025. "Volatility spillovers in the Russian stock market: Responses to exogenous shocks," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 65-84.
    9. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Foglia, Matteo & Palomba, Giulio & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Disentangling the geopolitical risk and its effects on commodities. Evidence from a panel of G8 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Kazi Sohag & Anna Gainetdinova & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Riad Shams, 2022. "Dynamic Connectedness among Vaccine Companies’ Stock Prices: Before and after Vaccines Released," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-26, August.
    12. Elie Bouri & Mahdi Ghaemi Asl & Sahar Darehshiri & David Gabauer, 2024. "Asymmetric connectedness between conventional and Islamic cryptocurrencies: Evidence from good and bad volatility spillovers," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, December.
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Kumar, Sanjeev & Patel, Ritesh & Iqbal, Najaf & Gubareva, Mariya, 2023. "Interconnectivity among cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and DeFi: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness and spillovers across sectors: Evidence from the Indian stock market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(3), pages 283-300, July.
    17. Szafranek, Karol & Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The role of uncertainty and sentiment for intraday volatility connectedness between oil and financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Cepni, Oguzhan & Molnár, Peter & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "Connectedness of energy markets around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Zhang, Yunhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "How connected is the oil-bank network? Firm-level and high-frequency evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Coskun, Ali & Ercan, Metin, 2025. "Connectedness of cryptocurrency-related stocks and the cryptocurrency market: Evidence from the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:66:y:2023:i:c:s0275531923001745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.