IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/11219.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Geopolitical Risks and Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Mulabdic, Alen
  • Yotov, Yoto V.

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of geopolitical risks on international trade, using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and an empirical gravity model. The impact of spikes in geopolitical risk on trade is negative, strong, and heterogeneous across sectors. The findings show that increases in geopolitical risk reduce trade by about 30 to 40 percent. These effects are equivalent to an increase of global tariffs of up to 14 percent. Services trade is most vulnerable to geopolitical risks, followed by agriculture, and the impact on manufacturing trade is moderate. These negative effects are partially mitigated by cultural and geographic proximity, as well as by the presence of trade agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Mulabdic, Alen & Yotov, Yoto V., 2025. "Geopolitical Risks and Trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11219, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099257009232525631/pdf/IDU-6a52e81b-22d9-4e0c-b520-931c26858b54.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Constantinos Syropoulos & Gabriel Felbermayr & Aleksandra Kirilakha & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "The global sanctions data base–Release 3: COVID‐19, Russia, and multilateral sanctions," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 12-48, February.
    3. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jan), pages 49-63.
    4. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Egger, Peter H. & Nigai, Sergey, 2015. "Structural gravity with dummies only: Constrained ANOVA-type estimation of gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 86-99.
    6. Matthieu Crozet & Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik, 2022. "International Trade and Letters of Credit: A Double-Edged Sword in Times of Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 185-211, June.
    7. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    8. Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "On the role of domestic trade flows for estimating the gravity model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 526-540, July.
    9. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
    10. Agnosteva, Delina E. & Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Intra-national trade costs: Assaying regional frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 32-50.
    11. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    13. Michael Pfaffermayr, 2019. "Gravity models, PPML estimation and the bias of the robust standard errors," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(18), pages 1467-1471, October.
    14. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.
    15. Egger, Peter H. & Tarlea, Filip, 2015. "Multi-way clustering estimation of standard errors in gravity models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 144-147.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefani Stefanova & Sophie Bandarkar & Yoto Yotov, 2025. "A Reassessment of the Impact of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development on International Trade," Working Papers 202509, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    2. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Economic sanctions and agricultural trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(4), pages 1477-1517, August.
    3. Lionel Fontagne & Krasimir Shishmanov & Penka Shishmanova & Yoto Yotov, 2025. "Asymmetric Impacts of Economic Integration: The Case of the Single European Market," Working Papers 202533, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    4. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    5. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Estimating the effects of trade agreements: Lessons from 60 years of methods and data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1771-1799, May.
    6. Kwon, Ohyun & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yotov, Yoto V., 2024. "Identifying and quantifying the extraterritorial effects of sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Harald Oberhofer & Zhenyi Wang, 2025. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About EU Membership Trade Effects But Were Afraid to Ask," CESifo Working Paper Series 11823, CESifo.
    8. Arne Nagengast & Fernando Rios-Avila & Yoto Yotov, 2024. "The European Single Market and Intra-EU Trade: An Assessment with Heterogeneity-Robust Difference-in-Differences Methods," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2024-5, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    9. Doyoung Park & William Ridley, 2025. "Thirsty for Trade: How Globalization Shapes Virtual Water Trade," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(2), pages 279-338, February.
    10. Arne Nagengast & Fernando Rios-Avila & Yoto Yotov, 2024. "The European Single Market and Intra-EU Trade: An Assessment with Heterogeneity-Robust Difference-in-Differences Methods," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2024-5, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    11. repec:sus:susewp:1124 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Benjamin Jung, 2023. "The Trade Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement: Heterogeneity Across Time, Country Pairs, and Directions of Trade within Country Pairs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 617-656, July.
    13. Lisandra Flach & Inga Heiland & Mario Larch & Marina Steininger & Feodora A. Teti, 2024. "Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 281-323, February.
    14. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Gabriel Felbermayr & Constantinos Syropoulos & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto V. Yotov, 2025. "On the heterogeneous effects of sanctions on trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(1), pages 247-280, February.
    16. Lampe, Markus & O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj & Reiter, Lorenz & Yotov, Yoto V., 2025. "The Empire project: Trade policy in interwar Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    17. Jung, Benjamin, 2022. "The Trade Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement: Heterogeneity across Time, Country Pairs, and Directions of Trade within Country Pairs," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264125, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Constantinos Syropoulos & Gabriel Felbermayr & Aleksandra Kirilakha & Erdal Yalcin & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "The global sanctions data base–Release 3: COVID‐19, Russia, and multilateral sanctions," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 12-48, February.
    19. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Zhao, Yongzhi & Ji, Changjing & Chen, Yangfen & Zhu, Xueqin, 2024. "Who gains, who loses? – The impact of the belt and road initiative on bilateral agricultural trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    21. Yang, Yichen & Liu, Wen, 2024. "Free trade agreements and domestic value added in exports: An analysis from the network perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.