IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cii/cepidt/2026-02.html

Trade under Tensions: Insights from Media-Reported Bilateral events

Author

Listed:
  • Nathan Chevalier
  • Matthieu Crozet
  • Charlotte Emlinger
  • Daniel Mirza

Abstract

A growing number of studies show the significant impact of major geopolitical events and alignments between countries on international trade. We propose a new dataset, based on the GDELT database, that captures the exposure of country pairs to all types of geopolitical frictions, including low- and medium-importance events. The statistical indicators, which are monthly and bilateral, provide information on the geopolitical climate surrounding the relations between each country pair over time. The database covers 201 countries over nearly 10 years. Our econometric analysis confirms that geopolitical tensions create an unfavorable climate for international trade. We estimate that An increase of one standard deviation in our tension indicator has an effect on trade equivalent to a tariff ranging from 0.06% to 8.19%, depending on the specification. We also observe that the sensitivity of international trade to geopolitical events has increased significantly since the COVID-19 crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Chevalier & Matthieu Crozet & Charlotte Emlinger & Daniel Mirza, 2026. "Trade under Tensions: Insights from Media-Reported Bilateral events," Working Papers 2026-02, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2026-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2026/wp2026-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2026-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.