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Relationship Stickiness, International Trade, and Economic Uncertainty

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  • Julien Martin
  • Isabelle Mejean
  • Mathieu Parenti

Abstract

This paper examines how the degree of stickiness in business relationships influences the real impact of aggregate uncertainty. We first develop a novel index of relationship stickiness (RS) for more than 5,000 HS6 products based on the duration of firm-to-firm trade. The RS measure is derived from a stylized search model in which a higher degree of stickiness implies a lower probability of switching and longer firm-to-firm trade relationships, conditional on match quality. Relationship stickiness shapes the dynamics of firm-to-firm relationships in response to uncertainty shocks. Uncertainty shocks induce a significant and larger decrease in the rate at which new firm-to-firm relationships are formed in high-RS product categories. The relationship between uncertainty and separation rates also varies along the distribution of RS indices, the probability of a trade relationship ending being significantly reduced in sticky-product markets in uncertain times. These results provide evidence that trade of sticky products is characterized by wait-and-see behaviors during uncertainty episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Martin & Isabelle Mejean & Mathieu Parenti, 2021. "Relationship Stickiness, International Trade, and Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers ECARES 2021-03, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/317363
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ciani, Andrea & Mau, Karsten, 2023. "Delivery times in international competition: An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Caroline Freund & Aaditya Mattoo & Alen Mulabdic & Michele Ruta, 2022. "Natural Disasters and the Reshaping of Global Value Chains," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 590-623, September.
    4. Marius Faber & Kemal Kilic & Gleb Kozliakov & Dalia Marin, 2024. "Global Value Chains in a World of Uncertainty and Automation," CESifo Working Paper Series 11419, CESifo.
    5. de Lucio, Juan & Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2023. "Do firms react to supply chain disruptions?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 902-916.
    6. Monarch, Ryan & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Longevity and the value of trade relationships," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Antrà s, Pol & Chor, Davin, 2021. "Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 15908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Kossi Messanh Agbekponou & Ilaria Fusacchia, 2024. "Positioning and bargaining power in agri-food global value chains," Post-Print hal-04666067, HAL.
    9. Kossi Messanh Agbekponou & Ilaria Fusacchia, 2024. "Positioning and bargaining power in agri-food global value chains," Post-Print hal-04666053, HAL.
    10. Gloria Allione & Claire Giordano, 2023. "Are the Happy Few still happy? Exporter heterogeneity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 816, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Cajal-Grossi, Julia & Del Prete, Davide & Macchiavello, Rocco, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and sourcing strategies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Rigo, Davide, 2024. "The role of firm-to-firm relationships in exporter dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121135, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Davide Rigo, 2024. "The role of firm‐to‐firm relationships in exporter dynamics," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 569-587, April.
    14. Kossi Messanh Agbekponou & Ilaria Fusacchia, 2023. "Global value chains' position and value capture: Firm evidence in agri-food industry," Post-Print hal-04321612, HAL.
    15. Giorgia Giovannetti & Gianluca Santoni & Giulio Vannelli, 2023. "Securing Foreign Markets: Exports, Relational Specificity and New Investment Locations," Working Papers 2023-03, CEPII research center.
    16. Kossi Messanh Agbekponou & Ilaria Fusacchia, 2023. "Global value chains' position and value capture: Firm evidence in agri-food industry," Post-Print hal-04321670, HAL.

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    Keywords

    Relationship Stickiness; International Trade; Economic Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis

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