IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bos/iedwpr/dp-342.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political Beta

Author

Listed:
  • Raymond Fisman

    (Boston University)

  • April Knill

    (Florida State University)

  • Sergey Mityakov

    (Florida State University)

  • Margarita Portnykh

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

Using a framework akin to portfolio theory in asset pricing, we introduce the concept of “political beta†to model firm-level export diversification in response to global political risk. The main implication of our model is that a firm is less responsive to changes in political relations with a destination market when that country contributes less to (has lower political beta) or even hedges against (has negative political beta) the firm’s total political risk. This result follows the diversification logic of portfolio theory, in which an investor values a given asset depending on the asset’s comovement with his/her overall investment portfolio. We find patterns consistent with our model using disaggregated Russian firm-by-destination-country data during 1999-2011: trade is positively correlated with political relations, though the effect is far weaker for trading partners whose political relations with Russia are relatively uncorrelated with those of other partners in a firm’s export portfolio. Our results highlight the importance of viewing firms’ political relations as an undiversifiable source of risk, and more generally points to the value of modeling firms’ treatment of risks as a portfolio diversification problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Fisman & April Knill & Sergey Mityakov & Margarita Portnykh, 2020. "Political Beta," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-342, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-342
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.bu.edu/fisman/files/2020/03/PoliticalBeta_27Mar2020.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Risk; Asset Pricing Theory; Portfolio Theory; Exports; Diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decbuus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Program Coordinator (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decbuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.