IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bos/iedwpr/dp-342.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political Beta

Author

Listed:
  • Raymond Fisman

    (Boston University)

  • April Knill

    (Florida State University)

  • Sergey Mityakov

    (Florida State University)

  • Margarita Portnykh

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

Using a framework akin to portfolio theory in asset pricing, we introduce the concept of “political beta†to model firm-level export diversification in response to global political risk. The main implication of our model is that a firm is less responsive to changes in political relations with a destination market when that country contributes less to (has lower political beta) or even hedges against (has negative political beta) the firm’s total political risk. This result follows the diversification logic of portfolio theory, in which an investor values a given asset depending on the asset’s comovement with his/her overall investment portfolio. We find patterns consistent with our model using disaggregated Russian firm-by-destination-country data during 1999-2011: trade is positively correlated with political relations, though the effect is far weaker for trading partners whose political relations with Russia are relatively uncorrelated with those of other partners in a firm’s export portfolio. Our results highlight the importance of viewing firms’ political relations as an undiversifiable source of risk, and more generally points to the value of modeling firms’ treatment of risks as a portfolio diversification problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Fisman & April Knill & Sergey Mityakov & Margarita Portnykh, 2020. "Political Beta," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-342, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-342
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.bu.edu/fisman/files/2020/03/PoliticalBeta_27Mar2020.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergey Mityakov & Heiwai Tang & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "International Politics and Import Diversification," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 1091-1121.
    2. Lucy Chernykh & Sergey Mityakov, 2022. "Behavior of Corporate Depositors During a Bank Panic," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(12), pages 9129-9151, December.
    3. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    4. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    6. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Hoberg, Gerard & Moon, S. Katie, 2017. "Offshore activities and financial vs operational hedging," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 217-244.
    8. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    9. Kuzmina, Olga & Kuznetsova, Olga, 2018. "Operational and financial hedging: Evidence from export and import behavior," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 109-121.
    10. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    11. Maxim Mironov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2016. "Corruption in Procurement and the Political Cycle in Tunneling: Evidence from Financial Transactions Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 287-321, May.
    12. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    13. Stone, Randall W., 2004. "The Political Economy of IMF Lending in Africa," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(4), pages 577-591, November.
    14. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Stark, Oded, 1989. "Consumption Smoothing, Migration, and Marriage: Evidence from Rural India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 905-926, August.
    15. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    16. Axel Dreher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2012. "Do the IMF and the World Bank influence voting in the UN General Assembly?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 363-397, April.
    17. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    18. Bělín, Matěj & Hanousek, Jan, 2021. "Which sanctions matter? analysis of the EU/russian sanctions of 2014," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 244-257.
    19. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    20. Desai, Mihir A. & Fritz Foley, C. & Hines Jr., James R., 2008. "Capital structure with risky foreign investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 534-553, June.
    21. Knill, April & Lee, Bong-Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2012. "Bilateral political relations and sovereign wealth fund investment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 108-123.
    22. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    23. Olivier Bertrand & Marie-Ann Betschinger & Alexander Settles, 2016. "The relevance of political affinity for the initial acquisition premium in cross-border acquisitions," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 2071-2091, October.
    24. Sofia A Johan & April Knill & Nathan Mauck, 2013. "Determinants of sovereign wealth fund investment in private equity vs public equity," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 44(2), pages 155-172, February.
    25. Raymond Fisman & Yasushi Hamao & Yongxiang Wang, 2014. "Nationalism and Economic Exchange: Evidence from Shocks to Sino-Japanese Relations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(9), pages 2626-2660.
    26. Chernykh, Lucy & Mityakov, Sergey, 2017. "Offshore schemes and tax evasion: The role of banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 516-542.
    27. Raymond Fisman & Eric Hardy & Sergey Mityakov, 2021. "Transparency, Contracting Frictions, and Trade: Evidence across Firms," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 637-680.
    28. Henisz, Witold J, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Multinational Investment," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 334-364, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Yinghua & Nielsson, Ulf & Wang, Yonglei, 2017. "Hurting without hitting: The economic cost of political tension," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 106-124.
    2. Andrew Greenland & Mihai Ion & John Lopresti, 2019. "Exports, investment and policy uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 1248-1288, August.
    3. Cheng, Sirui & Hua, Xiuping & Wang, Qingfeng, 2023. "Corporate culture and firm resilience in China: Evidence from the Sino-US trade war," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    5. Fernando M. Duarte & Carlo Rosa, 2015. "The equity risk premium: a review of models," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 2, pages 39-57.
    6. Dunbar, Kwamie, 2021. "Pricing the hedging factor in the cross-section of stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Zhong, Angel, 2018. "Idiosyncratic volatility in the Australian equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-125.
    8. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:4:p:370-395 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2514 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Zura Kakushadze, 2014. "4-Factor Model for Overnight Returns," Papers 1410.5513, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2015.
    11. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2020. "The impact of trade policy uncertainty shocks on the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 100832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2003. "Are Fama-French and momentum factors really priced?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 359-384, December.
    13. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 672, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    14. Zhou, Bo & Zhang, Ying & Zhou, Peng, 2021. "Multilateral political effects on outbound tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    15. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    18. Cong Wang, 2024. "Stock return prediction with multiple measures using neural network models," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, December.
    19. D. L. Wilcox & T. J. Gebbie, 2013. "On pricing kernels, information and risk," Papers 1310.4067, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2013.
    20. Guo, Hui, 2006. "Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2087-2107, July.
    21. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2011. "Risk factors in oil and gas industry returns: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-542, May.
    22. Likitwongkajon, Napaporn & Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2022. "Internationalization, foreign exchange exposure and firm risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Risk; Asset Pricing Theory; Portfolio Theory; Exports; Diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Program Coordinator (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decbuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.