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Political Beta

Author

Listed:
  • Raymond Fisman

    (Boston University)

  • April Knill

    (Florida State University)

  • Sergey Mityakov

    (Florida State University)

  • Margarita Portnykh

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

Abstract

Using a framework akin to portfolio theory in asset pricing, we introduce the concept of “political beta†to model firm-level export diversification in response to global political risk. The main implication of our model is that a firm is less responsive to changes in political relations with a destination market when that country contributes less to (has lower political beta) or even hedges against (has negative political beta) the firm’s total political risk. This result follows the diversification logic of portfolio theory, in which an investor values a given asset depending on the asset’s comovement with his/her overall investment portfolio. We find patterns consistent with our model using disaggregated Russian firm-by-destination-country data during 1999-2011: trade is positively correlated with political relations, though the effect is far weaker for trading partners whose political relations with Russia are relatively uncorrelated with those of other partners in a firm’s export portfolio. Our results highlight the importance of viewing firms’ political relations as an undiversifiable source of risk, and more generally points to the value of modeling firms’ treatment of risks as a portfolio diversification problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Fisman & April Knill & Sergey Mityakov & Margarita Portnykh, 2020. "Political Beta," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-342, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-342
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    File URL: https://sites.bu.edu/fisman/files/2020/03/PoliticalBeta_27Mar2020.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Risk; Asset Pricing Theory; Portfolio Theory; Exports; Diversification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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