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Multilateral Political Effects on Outbound Tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Bo

    (School of Management, Xiamen University, China)

  • Zhang, Ying

    (School of Management, Xiamen University, China)

  • Zhou, Peng

    (Cardiff Business School)

Abstract

To capture the role of politics in tourism, we propose a novel measure to quantify political relations based on text analysis of published diplomatic statements. We explain how political relations affect outbound tourist flows from China to Japan and Korea. Estimated on monthly data (1997m1-2018m12), our model shows how China-Japan disputes affect tourist flows to Korea and how China-Korea clashes influence the number of Chinese tourists going to Japan. The political effects are estimated to peak after three months, but half of the effects vanish in six months. We also observe asymmetries in the political effects the tourists respond more to negative political shocks than to positive ones, and more to territorial disputes than to war history disputes.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Bo & Zhang, Ying & Zhou, Peng, 2021. "Multilateral Political Effects on Outbound Tourism," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2021/2
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahn, JaeBin & Greaney, Theresa M. & Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "Political conflict and angry consumers: Evaluating the regional impacts of a consumer boycott on travel services trade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Xu, Yonghong & Su, Bingjie & Pan, Wenjie & Zhou, Peng, 2024. "A High-Frequency Digital Economy Index: Text Analysis and Factor Analysis based on Big Data," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Yang, Fiona X. & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi & Yang, Gongyan & Yuan, Jia, 2023. "Political ideological distance and tourism demand: The cultural–political interplay," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Wei, Hao & Tu, Yue & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Technical barriers to trade and export performance: Comparing exiting and staying firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Yang, Xiaoliang & Zhou, Peng, 2025. "Unveiling citation bias in economics: Taste-based discrimination against Chinese-authored papers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Yu, Ling & Zhao, Pengjun & Tang, Junqing & Pang, Liang, 2023. "Changes in tourist mobility after COVID-19 outbreaks," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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