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Hegemonic Globalization

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Broner
  • Alberto Martin
  • Josefin Meyer
  • Christoph Trebesch

Abstract

How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization,” built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any two countries increases with the degree of alignment in these policies. Hegemons promote policy alignment and thereby facilitate deeper trade integration. A unipolar world, dominated by a single hegemon, tends to support globalization. However, the transition to a multipolar world can trigger fragmentation, which is particularly costly for the declining hegemon and its closest allies. To test the theory, we use nternational treaties as a proxy for alignment and compile a novel “Global Treaties Database,” covering 77,000 international agreements signed between 1800 and 2020. Consistent with the theory, we find that hegemons account for a disproportionate share of global treaty activity and that treaty-signing is a leading indicator of increasing bilateral trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Josefin Meyer & Christoph Trebesch, 2025. "Hegemonic Globalization," CESifo Working Paper Series 11951, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11951
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
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    4. Dür, Andreas & Baccini, Leonardo & Elsig, Manfred, 2014. "The design of international trade agreements: introducing a new dataset," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59179, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Michel Fouquin & Jules Hugot, 2016. "Two Centuries of Bilateral Trade and Gravity data: 1827-2014," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-39.
    6. Béatrice Dedinger & Paul Girard, 2017. "Exploring trade globalization in the long run: The RICardo project," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 30-48, January.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • P45 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - International Linkages

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