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Migration and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia

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  • Dany Bahar
  • Andreas Hauptmann
  • Cem Özgüzel
  • Hillel Rapoport

Abstract

During the early 1990s Germany offered temporary protection to over 600,000 Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many had been repatriated. We exploit this natural experiment to investigate the role of migrants in post-conflict reconstruction in the former Yugoslavia, using exports as outcome. Using confidential social security data to capture intensity of refugee workers to German industries –and exogenous allocation rules for asylum seekers within Germany as instrument– we find an elasticity of exports to return migration between 0.08 to 0.24. Our results are stronger in knowledge-intensive industries and for workers in occupations intensive in analytical and managerial skills.

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  • Dany Bahar & Andreas Hauptmann & Cem Özgüzel & Hillel Rapoport, 2019. "Migration and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia," Working Papers 2019-12, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-12
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dany Bahar, 2020. "Diasporas and Economic Development: A Review of the Evidence and Policy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 200-214, June.
    3. Jaschke, Philipp & Sardoschau, Sulin & Tabellini, Marco, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 14962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Jordi Paniagua & Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo, 2021. "Asylum Migration in OECD Countries: In Search of Lost Well-Being," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 1109-1137, February.
    5. Diodato, Dario & Hausmann, Ricardo & Neffke, Frank, 2023. "The impact of return migration on employment and wages in Mexican cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Nelly Elmallakh & Jackline Wahba, 2023. "Syrian Refugees and the Migration Dynamics of Jordanians: Moving In or Moving Out?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1283-1330.
    7. Orefice, Gianluca & Rapoport, Hillel & Santoni, Gianluca, 2025. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Tuccio, Michele & Wahba, Jackline, 2020. "Social Remittances," GLO Discussion Paper Series 609, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Jaschke Philipp & Sulin Sardoschau & Marco Tabellini, 2021. "Scared Straight? Threat and Assimilation of Refugees in Germany," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2136, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    10. Dany Bahar, 0. "Diasporas and Economic Development: A Review of the Evidence and Policy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 0, pages 1-15.
    11. Mayda, Anna-Maria & Parsons, Christopher & Pham, Han & Vézina, Pierre-Louis, 2022. "Refugees and foreign direct investment: Quasi-experimental evidence from US resettlements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    12. Dario Diodato & Ricardo Hausmann & Frank Neffke, 2020. "The impact of return migration from the U.S. on employment and wages in Mexican cities," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2012, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Mar 2020.
    13. Gianluca Orefice & Hillel Rapoport & Gianluca Santoni, 2021. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports? Networks, Knowledge, Diversity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9288, CESifo.
    14. Görg, Holger & Mulyukova, Alina, 2024. "Place-based policies and firm performance: Evidence from Special Economic Zones in India," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Refugees; Knowledge Diffusion; Management; Exports; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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