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Self-fulfilling dynamics: The interactions of sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings during the euro financial crisis

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  • Heather D. Gibson
  • Stephen G. Hall
  • George S. Tavlas

Abstract

During the euro-area financial crisis, interactions among sovereign spreads, sovereign credit ratings, and bank credit ratings appeared to have been characterized by self-generating feedback loops. To investigate the existence of feedback loops, we consider a panel of five euro-area stressed countries within a three-equation simultaneous system in which sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings are endogenous. We estimate the system using two approaches. First we apply GMM estimation, which allows us to calculate persistence and multiplier effects. Second, we apply a new, system time-varying-parameter technique that provides bias-free estimates. Our results show that sovereign ratings, sovereign spreads, and bank ratings strongly interacted with each other during the euro crisis, confirming strong doom-loop effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas, 2016. "Self-fulfilling dynamics: The interactions of sovereign spreads, sovereign ratings and bank ratings during the euro financial crisis," Discussion Papers in Economics 16/18, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:16/18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2016. "How the euro-area sovereign-debt crisis led to a collapse in bank equity prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-275.
    2. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael Hutchison, 2013. "Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 582-609, AUTUMN.
    4. Pisani-Ferry, Jean, 2013. "The known unknowns and unknown unknowns of European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 6-14.
    5. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-591, May.
    6. Theoharry Grammatikos & Robert Vermeulen, 2014. "The 2007--2009 financial crisis: changing market dynamics and the impact of credit supply and aggregate demand sensitivity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(8), pages 895-911, March.
    7. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    8. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:4:y:2016:i:2:p:19:d:66559 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    10. Maltritz, Dominik, 2012. "Determinants of sovereign yield spreads in the Eurozone: A Bayesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 657-672.
    11. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2014. "Fundamentally Wrong: Market Pricing of Sovereigns and the Greek Financial Crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 405-419.
    12. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    13. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    14. P.A.V.B. Swamy & Stephen G. Hall & George S. Tavlas & I-Lok Chang & Heather D. Gibson & William H. Greene & Jatinder S. Mehta, 2016. "A Method for Measuring Treatment Effects on the Treated without Randomization," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(2), pages 1-23, March.
    15. Swamy P. A. V. B. & Tavlas George S & Hall Stephen G. F. & Hondroyiannis George, 2010. "Estimation of Parameters in the Presence of Model Misspecification and Measurement Error," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-35, May.
    16. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S., 2012. "The Greek financial crisis: Growing imbalances and sovereign spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 498-516.
    17. Manfred G?rtner & Bj?rn Griesbach, 2017. "Rating Agencies, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy and Multiple Equilibria? An Empirical Model of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis 2009-2011," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 199-226, June.
    18. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Giacometti, Rosella & Tsuchida, Naoshi, 2016. "Factor decomposition of the Eurozone sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-23.
    19. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Cross of Euros," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 167-192, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar & Kazemi, Mina, 2020. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Theodoros S. Papaspyrou, 2017. "A new approach to governance and integration in EMU for an optimal use of economic policy framework - priority to financial union," Working Papers 229, Bank of Greece.
    3. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Petroulas, Pavlos & Spiliotopoulos, Vassilis & Tavlas, George S., 2020. "The effect of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) on bank lending during the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Heather D. Gibson & Stephen G. Hall & Pavlos Petroulas & George S. Tavlas, 2019. "On the Effects of the ECB’s Funding Policies on Bank Lending and the Demand for the Euro as an International Reserve," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    5. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
    6. Gibson, Heather D. & Hall, Stephen G. & Petroulas, Pavlos & Tavlas, George S., 2020. "On the effects of the ECB’s funding policies on bank lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2018. "Quantitative easing and sovereign bond yields: a global perspective," Working Papers 253, Bank of Greece.
    8. Meriläinen, Jari-Mikko & Junttila, Juha, 2020. "The relationship between credit ratings and asset liquidity: Evidence from Western European banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area financial crisis; sovereign spreads; rating agencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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